Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 05/30

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) David Peterson Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:10 PM CT on COLR

Peterson is not necessarily a strikeout pitcher, averaging just under one K per inning this season. But there are a couple of big factors working in his favor tonight that should help boost him over this prop. First is the opponent, as the Rockies just plain stink which is no secret. But they’re particularly awful against lefties like Peterson, tied for the highest strikeout rate when facing lefty pitching. Peterson has also been steadily increasing his innings workload, and that should continue against the league’s worst lineup. With more opportunity to record K’s and the recent floor of K’s for starters against Colorado sitting around 6, look for Peterson to cash this plus-juice return tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) NY Yankees -0.5 First 5 Innings @ LA Dodgers (+105; Odds via BetMGM): 9:10 PM CT on Apple TV+

There aren’t many situations where you’ll find me fading the Dodgers, but this one sets up pretty well. It’s all about Max Fried here giving the Yankees excellent starts every time through the rotation, as he’s yet to record a loss and New York is 10-1 when he takes the mound. He should be able to shut down the Dodgers here since he has excellent career numbers against them from his time in Atlanta, and lefties are LA’s weakness.

I’m also fading Tony Gonsolin who I have no trust in and has been roughed up in consecutive starts. Additionally, even the Dodgers are not immune to a Malinsky Special as this is their first game back after a cross-country road trip, and they’ve struggled in that situational spot a couple times already this season. It shouldn’t take much offense with Fried on the mound to cover this spread, so I like the Yankees and this plus-juice price early tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105; Odds via DraftKings)

I have to hedge a little bit on the Yankees play, and this is a good way to do it while maintaining the ability to cash both. It’s rare to find Ohtani at a plus-juice price for multiple bases, and I’m surprised to see it considering he’s one of the few Dodgers to have success against Max Fried. It’s not a big sample size, but Ohtani is 3-for-5 with a homer against Fried and currently tearing the cover off the ball, so I’ll look to cash both of these.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Trent Grisham Alt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125; Odds via DraftKings)

Ok, one more. The books know Grisham’s history against Tony Gonsolin and expect him to get a hit, so I’ll go to the alt line and look for a couple of bases. Grisham has seen a lot of Gonsolin from his time in San Diego, compiling a career .467 average and 1.200 OPS, so this is worth a sprinkle and hopefully helps cash the Yankees F5 bet.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Washington Mystics First Half Team Total Over 38.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ION

Now that it’s 2-0 on the season, this is quickly solidifying itself as one of my favorite WNBA angles again this year. There’s just something about the Mystics at home in the first half, stretching back into last season, and I think this is another sneaky opportunity at a more gettable number. Last year’s Mystics squad was 14-6 over this total at home, while averaging 41.9 first half points.

Tonight, the Liberty being big favorites pushes Washington’s totals down into a range where I’m very comfortable playing them in general, and especially here. The Liberty are on a rare back-to-back with no rest in this game after having to fight hard against the Valkyries last night, and could very easily come out sluggish on defense. The Mystics are second in the league in three-point percentage which helps build up early points, and I think they take advantage of home court and a tired Liberty squad.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-13 (-0.40 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.