Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 05/28

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves Team Total Over 105.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN

The Wolves have shown an incredible ability to crush this team total, and an incredible ability to come nowhere close. That’s so emblematic of their up-and-down season with a bunch of inexplicable losses for a team with this level of talent. I’m seeing a fairly low number here that they should be able to reach in a desperation spot, held down by OKC being heavy favorites. But against the Thunder specifically, it’s really all about three-point shooting.

In the three instances this season where the Wolves fell short of this team total against OKC they shot just 32% from deep, but the five games they went over that increased to 37.7% which is actually a touch above their season average. If they can take the three-point shooting they found at Target Center and bring it on the road, they’ll clear this team total tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Jaden McDaniels Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+115; Odds via DraftKings)

If the Thunder run that same box-and-1 against Anthony Edwards again tonight, Jaden will be a big beneficiary of Ant’s distributing. The Thunder get killed on corner three’s on a good day, and McDaniels has shown the ability to get open there. The Wolves will undoubtedly continue firing three’s, and a guy who’s shooting 40% from deep in the playoffs and 47.6% in this series should splash a couple to cash this juicy return.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Miami Marlins/San Diego Padres Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:10 PM CT on SDPA

Overs are tough to come by in San Diego, with the park dimensions and marine layer making it tough for the ball to jump too far. That’s why the over is only cashing in 36% of Padres home games this season, but this is a different scenario as a day game eliminates a lot of the marine layer factor.

And the remains of Sandy Alcantara starting for Miami, the league’s second-best over team, gives me even more confidence. Alcantara on the road has gotten ridiculous, with a 12.64 ERA, a 2.23 WHIP, and .348 on-base average allowed, plus the Padres have good success against him overall. With San Diego giving Kyle Hart a spot start today, neither team is trotting out quality pitching and it should result in plenty of runs this afternoon.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Washington Mystics First Half Team Total Over 40.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on NBA TV

This was one of my favorite WNBA angles last season, as the Mystics were always on fire in the first half of home games. There hasn’t been much opportunity to continue that into this season, with Washington going over this total in their lone home game before a rough west coast road trip. I’m sure they’re happy to be back home, and facing the Fever without Caitlin Clark.

This will be Indiana’s first game without the MVP favorite, and their defense will suffer along with their offense so the Mystics should have an opening here. Washington is the league’s second-best three-point shooting team, and the Fever should drive a fast pace here to create more possessions, and I think the Mystics score with ease to open the game.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-14 (-1.80 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.