Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 05/20

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves Team Total Over 104.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN

I like the over in this game, even with sharp money pushing the total up a bit from the opener, and I also like the Wolves catching the points. But I don’t want to get too exposed in Game 1, so this is a good way to essentially back both opinions at once while also letting my bias flag fly. Game 1’s at this stage are often less intense defensively, and I think the Wolves learned their lesson from flopping in Game 1 against the Warriors so they’ll be sharper tonight.

The Wolves also went 4-0 over this total in the regular season meetings with OKC, whose defense down the stretch of the season was less than stellar. There’s a lot of disrespect for the Wolves out there, and the numbers for tonight’s game are a good example, so I’ll buy low on their offensive potential here.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit): Julius Randle Over 32.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Julius has been the overall MVP of the playoffs league wide – there, I said it. I’m very excited to see him unleashed on the Thunder, as he only played in one of the four regular season meetings. Much like Aaron Gordon last round, his size and strength are tough matchups for OKC to contain, but he’s much more well-rounded in scoring and distributing. Randle is averaging 35.7 on this prop in the playoffs, so look for another big night in the box score.

Extra Bonus Bet (1 Unit): Jaden McDaniels Over 19.5 Points+Rebounds (+100; Odds via DraftKings)

Jaden tore up the Thunder in the regular season, averaging 26.8 on this prop. He had one game with 21 points alone, and two others with a double-double, so the consistency is there which shows he’s also a tough matchup for them. Playoff Jaden is a real thing, I’m telling you, and his average of 21.5 on this prop in the postseason should be where this number was posted so I’ll take the over.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 12-15 (-1.6 Units) – Recommend: Tail

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.