Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 05/19

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Chicago Cubs/Miami Marlins Over 9 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports FL

We have the two best over teams in baseball meeting up here, so it’s no wonder this total has been on the rise. With the pitching involved today, I think we see these teams pad those over records. I’ve been suspicious of Cubs starter Ben Brown all season despite some excellent starts mixed in with bad ones, and this Miami offense deserves more credit than it gets. But with Edward Cabrera going for the Marlins, a blowup start is always possible, especially facing a Cubs team with the most runs in baseball against righties. Behind Brown and Cabrera are two bullpens in the bottom third of MLB in runs allowed and ERA, so the conditions are right for sending this over the total.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Kansas City Royals Team Total Under 3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:45 PM CT on Fanduel Sports KC

There was a stretch where it looked like the Royals might have found some offense, but that was short lived. They’re back to complete scoring futility now, and tonight have to face a dominant lefty which is their biggest weakness. The Royals are 27th in scoring, weighted runs created, and weighted on-base average against lefthanded pitching this season, so Robbie Ray should have no trouble holding them down. Ray has been excellent at home, and an evening game in San Francisco is a tough spot for scoring in general. The Giants also lead baseball in bullpen ERA, so the relievers should also shut down a Royals team that is 31-17 under this total on the season.

MLB (0.75 Unit) LA Angels/Athletics Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:05 PM CT on NBCS-CA

Obligatory Athletics home game over. The over is 14-7 in Sacramento’s Triple-A park, and the pitching that we’ll see tonight should fuel another. Jose Soriano for the Angels has benefited from facing a lot of offensively inept teams on the road this year, but this tiny park is an entirely different situation, especially with the wind blowing out tonight.

Rookie Athletics starter JT Ginn is slowly getting figured out by major league hitters, and an Angels team that’s fresh off a shocking sweep of the Dodgers should be swinging with confidence. And behind these starters are the bullpens who have allowed the most and third-most runs in baseball this season, and the park factor impacts them just as much so look for plenty of runs throughout this game tonight.

Degenerates

WNBA Seattle Storm Team Total Over 83.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBA TV

I’m cautiously backing the Storm for points in this game, mostly because of who they’re playing. Seattle laid an complete egg in their opener, getting run out 81-59 in Phoenix which was unexpected for a team with a lot of good pieces. I’m expecting those pieces to come together better here against Dallas, who definitely hasn’t fixed their defensive issues from last season when they gave up the most points in the league. I’ll be targeting Wings opponent team totals for the foreseeable future, and sharp over money coming in gives me confidence that the Storm can drastically improve tonight.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-16 (+1.0 Units) – Recommend: Tail

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.