Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 05/15

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Aaron Gordon Over 23.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN

Gordon had a relatively low-impact game on Tuesday night as Nikola Jokic dominated the box score for Denver. It’s worth noting that he had a poor night from three, his first of the series, and if he shot it from deep the way he had in the first four games, he would’ve gone over his points-plus-rebounds prop. Since you’d still have to consider Gordon a role player in Denver’s system, he should get the typical role player boost in a playoff home game, especially in his three-point shooting. So I’ll buy in on him at a slight discount here to have another big game in a do-or-die spot for the Nuggets.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Aaron Gordon Over 1.5 Made Three’s (-105; Odds via DraftKings)

Like I mentioned, Gordon’s first poor three-point shooting game in this series came on Tuesday, and I think he bounces back here. Gordon shoots 52% from deep at home this season with 1.9 makes on average, and torched OKC from long range in Games 3 and 4, so I’ll play the bounce back here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Houston Astros/Texas Rangers First 5 Innings Under 3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:05 PM CT on SCHN

We have an elite pitching matchup going in this one, and I have to look at this as a very low-scoring game overall but particularly to start. Hunter Brown going up against Jacob DeGrom is a fun one for those who like high-level pitching, and these offenses should struggle. Brown has been just plain elite all season, and should be able to contain a Rangers offense that’s been one of the bigger disappointments in all of baseball.

DeGrom meanwhile has been essentially untouchable at home, posting a 1.88 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and .196 batting average allowed in 5 starts at Globe Life Field. That’s also the place where overs go to die, as Rangers home games are 18-5 to the under with a minus-2.0 average margin to the total, both of which are the most in baseball. For their respective home/road splits, both teams are very poor in first-five scoring, so look for the early part of this game to be dominated by the excellent pitchers.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-16 (+1.8 Units) – Recommend: Tail

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.