Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 05/13

Locks

NBA (0.25 Unit) Indiana Pacers +7.5 @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on TNT

Let’s be realistic: this series is over. The Pacers keep delivering haymakers, so it’s time to admit that they’re pretty good and last year’s conference finals run was no fluke. I understand the bounce back and desperation spot that Cleveland finds themselves in, and maybe they cling to a shred of life tonight and extend the series. But by this kind of margin, with Donovan Mitchell having reaggravated his ankle injury, Darius Garland still not fully healthy, and the defensive player of the year getting cooked regularly? I’ll cautiously take the points here.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Aaron Gordon Over 22.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:30 PM CT on TNT

Regardless of how this game turns out, Gordon should be a major factor again. He’s been incredibly active in this series, compensating for some very subpar games from Nikola Jokic who is OKC’s primary focus anyway. The Thunder just haven’t committed much defensive attention towards Gordon, and he’s a bad matchup for them to start with, so look for him to continue his great postseason run of averaging 25.8 on this prop.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Aaron Gordon Over 1.5 Made Three’s (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Books finally wised up and adjusted the juice on this, so no more plus-money return. But I still like it at this price because of how consistent he’s been, hitting multiple triples in every game of this series. The volume is there too, with at least 6 attempts except for the blowout where he sat for the second half, so look for a couple of makes again tonight.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Athletics/LA Dodgers Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:10 PM CT on NBCS-CA

It’s the Dodgers, I’m basically looking to take the over with them in any game where they’re not facing the reincarnation of Cy Young or prime Nolan Ryan. I think they can get to Jeffrey Springs here, who as a lefty puts LA into their better hitting split. Behind Springs is a bullpen that’s 28th in ERA and has allowed the 4th-most runs overall, so the Dodgers should do their part here and maybe cash the over themselves. But the homeless A’s are sneaky at the plate, and face another of LA’s deep bench of fill-in starters, so look for both teams to score enough and push this over the total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-15 (+3.6 Units) – Recommend: Tail

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.