Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 05/12

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves -5 @ Golden State Warriors (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

For anyone who got hooked by that meaningless Jonathan Kuminga three-pointer on Saturday night, you have my deepest sympathies. But that’s what it took, along with Kuminga having the game of his life out of nowhere, to prevent the Wolves from covering the same number they’re laying tonight.

It also didn’t help that they played one of the ugliest three-quarter stretches I’ve seen all season before focusing in for the fourth. I don’t see that perfect storm of factors combining again to derail what should be an easy cover against an outmatched opponent, so I’m laying it here again.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit): Julius Randle Over 33.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Randle’s triple-double on Saturday night was amazing, and he should fill up every stat category again given the Warriors have nobody to match up with him. He’s averaging 34.5 on this prop in the playoffs, and 38.3 against Golden State, and his scoring of 22.4 PPG in the postseason creates a very high floor to help him get over this total. Starter usage has exploded for the Wolves in the playoffs, so he should have every opportunity to go over again tonight with a big game.

Extra Bonus Bet (1 Unit): Jaden McDaniels Over 17.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

The Playoff Jaden Boost is a real thing, as McDaniels has jumped from averaging 17.9 on this throughout the regular season to 21.8 in the playoffs. As long as he stays out of foul trouble, which he has lately, and gets the usage rate being given to starters by Chris Finch, he’ll get over this number again.

Double Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Draymond Green Under 19.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Draymond is 7-3 under this total in the postseason so far, with only 17.6 on average. He’s obviously frustrated by the Wolves size and the absence of Steph Curry, with the rumor being he doesn’t truly want to play when Curry is out, so look for another quiet game in the box score.

NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics Team Total Over 107.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

I think the Boston offense woke up. The ugliest stretch of three-point shooting that I can recall out of them held their scoring below this team total for Games 1 and 2, but they soared over this number on Saturday with those shots finally dropping.

The Celtics averaged 125.0 PPG against the Knicks in the regular season, and even with the ugly playoff games tossed in are still averaging 115.7 on the year. A motivated Boston team experiencing massive positive regression is no match for the Knicks, so they should get over this number again tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Boston Celtics First Quarter -1.5 @ NY Knicks (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Boston has held a lead after the first quarter in 6 of the 7 meetings this season, with a plus-10.6 average margin. That’s typical from the team that was 2nd in average first quarter margin this season, including in road games. I’d expect a high sense of urgency since Boston can’t afford to go down 3-1, so I think they jump on the Knicks early again.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Michael King Under 3.5 Hits Allowed (+120; Odds via DraftKings): 8:40 PM CT on SDPA

Michael King is a bona fide Cy Young candidate in the National League. If he only ever pitched at home, he’d be the frontrunner for the Cy Young as he has some ridiculous numbers of a 1.32 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a .158 on-base average allowed. He’s cashed this prop in 3 of his 5 home starts, and should be able to dominate this LA lineup tonight.

The Angels are 28th in batting average, 26th in weighted on-base average, and 25th in OPS against righties, and King is no regular righty. So expect him to have another dazzling performance, especially with the Padres needing a bounce back after losing to the dreadful Rockies yesterday.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-16 (+0.3 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.