Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 05/11

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) OKC Thunder -3.5 First Half @ Denver Nuggets (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 2:30 PM CT on ABC

The Thunder, of all teams, are simply failing to close in this series. They’re getting out to strong starts, holding a lead after the first quarter and first half of all three games, along with covering this first half number all three times. That’s no surprise for the team that led the league in average first half margin, facing a team that surrenders a ton of first quarter and first half points.

So I’m rolling with this trend, specifically for the first half because I want to take advantage of the second quarter stretch where Denver’s lack of depth is most exposed. The Thunder should be better adapted to the elevation today and on a mission in a must-win spot after blowing Game 3, so look for a strong start out of them.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Aaron Gordon Over 22.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Gordon has been killing the Thunder this series, as I just don’t think OKC has anyone to match up well with him. He’s been averaging 25.3 on this prop in the playoffs, including 27.2 in home games where role players like him always play better, so look for another big game out of him as the prop market focuses more on Jokic.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Aaron Gordon Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+105; Odds via DraftKings)

Gordon’s three point volume and percentage have erupted in this series, going over this number in all three games. In the same vein of him playing better at home, Gordon shoots 52% from deep at Ball Arena this season, averaging 1.9 three-point makes per game, so take advantage of this plus-juice price.

MLB (1 Unit) San Diego Padres Team Total Over 7.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 2:10 PM CT on COLR

To be clear, I’m not expecting the Padres to score 21 runs again, but even significant regression leaves a lot of room to get over this number. That was insane yesterday, even for a game in Coors against Rockies pitching, but it’s German Marquez day and that can’t be ignored. Marquez has been the poster child of horrific Colorado pitching, allowing at least 5 runs in his past 5 starts, as well as seeing the opposing team score at least 6 in all of his starts.

That includes an 8-0 loss to the Padres where he gave up 6 runs, and the San Diego roster has a cumulative .331 batting average and .929 OPS against him. With the Rockies using a lot of relievers yesterday Marquez will be asked to pitch deeper today, and eventually will give way to an atrocious bullpen, so the Padres should be in line for another huge day at the plate.

MLB (0.75 Unit) NY Yankees/Athletics Over 9.5 (-120; Odds via BetMGM): 3:05 PM CT on YES

The Yankees still haven’t announced a starting pitcher for this game, but I don’t care who takes the mound for them. This is about the big wind blowing out of the small Triple-A park in Sacramento today, around 12-15 MPH to dead center. The Yankee lineup is starting to mash with 10 and 7 runs to open this series, and get to see a familiar face today in Luis Severino.

The former Yankee is in trouble with that wind as a fly ball pitcher, and should give up plenty, maybe even enough for the Yankees to clear this total themselves. But the A’s can hit too, especially against whatever fill-in starter New York sends out, so I really like the wind-assisted over today in this hitter friendly park.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays/Seattle Mariners Over 8 (-120; Odds via BetMGM): 3:10 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW

I thought the Seattle bats would break out yesterday, and it looked like they would early but then they started doing Mariners things. If they can’t break through today, then I don’t know when they will, as they face a starting pitcher that I didn’t think was still in the league. Jose Urena is back and as bad as ever, and the Blue Jay righty has career numbers of a .405 batting average and .909 OPS allowed to this Seattle roster.

The deeper metrics still say the Mariners are an elite team against righthanded pitching, so I have confidence in them putting up a big number today. But Toronto should help here as well against Bryce Miller, who has regression coming for him due to a high hard-hit percentage. That should show up today with the wind blowing out at T-Mobile Park, so a season series that has averaged 9.0 runs per game and gone 4-1 over this total should do so again here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-18 (-2.4 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.