Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 05/02

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers/Boston Celtics First Quarter Under 53.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on NBC

The total in this game is reflecting the Game 7 tax overall, with a meager 205.5 and sinking number there. But it’s not having as much of an impact on the first quarter number here, and that’s been the most consistently low-scoring part of this series. It’s strange for 6 games now that involve the 76ers who always seem to have high-scoring opening quarters, but it’s been 6-0 under this total so far.

Whether it’s a high-scoring game that clears the total, or a total cratering of points like in Game 6, these first quarters have been very mild with just 49.3 points on average. This is going to be a deliberately-paced game with high defensive effort, and since the Celtics have completely lost the range from deep, I’ll go with the early under here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Chris Sale Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:10 PM CT on MLB.TV

The Rockies are actually not terrible when it comes to getting some hits against lefties, with a solid weighted on-base average as well. But they can’t score runs against them, often because they’re striking out to end rallies, as Colorado has the 3rd-highest strikeout rate against southpaws this season. Sale should be able to feast on them, even though he’s only gone over this number once on the year, since his limited work against the Colorado lineup has seen him log an insane 42.9% K-rate. The Rockies are by far the most strikeout prone of any opponent he’s faced this season, and with his workload increasing game by game, I think he gets plenty of opportunities to rack of the K’s tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Seth Lugo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105; Odds via Fanduel): 8:40 PM CT on MLB.TV

Let’s flip the handedness here and go to the league’s 3rd-most strikeout prone team against righties for this game. That’d be the Mariners, who never seem to have much in the way of clutch offense either, so I think Seth Lugo can continue his emergence as a strikeout pitcher. He’s gone over this number in half his starts, including against a couple opponents who are extremely difficult to strike out. He’s also looking for a bounce back after getting shelled last time out, so this swing-and-miss Seattle squad is a good opponent to build his confidence back up against.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 12-23 (-7.97 Units) – Recommend: Probably Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.