Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 05/02

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Golden State Warriors Team Total Over 105.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN

Despite being the seven seed facing an excellent Rockets defense, you have to trust the Warriors to produce at this kind of level tonight. Steve Kerr will press all the right buttons in a close-out opportunity at home, and a Warriors offense that has gotten better as they’ve figured out this matchup only has a low number to clear here. Let’s not forget that Golden State’s starters got a lot of rest in the back half of Game 5, and I think that gives them an added advantage. With the Rockets on the brink of elimination, the late foul game will start sooner and be more desperate, padding points for the Warriors as they get over this total.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Jimmy Butler Over 21.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Steph Curry has been the focal point of the Houston defense, as well he should be. Curry is also dealing with a nagging thumb injury, and both factors have contributed to him being less than the typical Steph in this series. So the Warriors need to get their offensive production from somewhere, and with Playoff Jimmy getting healthier after his injury in Game 2, I see him going over this total in a close-out game.

MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Dodgers Team Total Over 5.5 (+110; Odds via Caesars): 6:15 PM CT on MLB Network

It’s basically a requirement to back the prospect of runs in every Dodgers game right now. Tonight I want to isolate their red-hot offense though, as Yoshi Yamamoto is likely to hold down the struggling Atlanta bats. The Dodgers have been as hot as it gets though, going over this total in 7 of their past 8 with 8.4 runs on average in that stretch. They’ve also already seen Braves starter Grant Holmes this season, tagging him for 4 runs in a 6-1 victory, and LA is mashing righthanded pitching in general. The offense is as locked in as it gets right now, and I think the Dodgers have another big night tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Michael Conforto Alt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+195; Odds via DraftKings)

Conforto being well down the board for props tonight makes him a heavily-juiced favorite to record one base, but also a heavily-juiced underdog in the alt bases market. Conforto has never failed to reach safely against Grant Holmes, with 3 hits and 3 walks in 6 plate appearances, and bats in the less-scary part of the Dodgers order where pitchers tend to relax a bit. He’s been in a slump, but this is the perfect matchup for him to break out of it, and a great price if he does.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Detroit Tigers -1.5 @ LA Angels (+100; Odds via Caesars): 8:38 PM CT on Fanduel Sports West

There is a massive gap between these teams, and an even more massive gap between these starting pitchers, which should result in a comfortable win for Detroit tonight. The Angels have fallen off a cliff since a surprising start, and it’s the offense that has failed them, an offense that should continue to flop here. LA cannot hit lefties, batting a paltry .204 against them this season, and scoring the fewest runs off them in MLB so far.

Here they’ll face maybe the most dominant lefty in the game as Tarik Skubal takes the mound, and the Angels just won’t be able to produce enough to compensate for what Jose Soriano will give up. Soriano has been crushed in both his home starts, neither of which came against strong offenses, so a Tigers team that’s scoring well should have no trouble with him. And if you expect Detroit to win, expect them to win by margin, as 17 of their 20 victories on the season have come by multiple runs and I see another coming tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 14-22 (-5.45 Units) – Recommend: Fade, Fade Hard

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.