Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 05/01

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) James Harden Under 20.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on Prime Video

There’s a pretty clear dividing line in this series for James Harden’s scoring output, and it’s the Canadian border. The Beard has been great at home, not coincidentally the site of Cleveland’s 3 wins, scoring 22, 28, and 23 points on 53.3% shooting. Up north, he’s only scored 18 and 19 points on 40.7% shooting, and those shooting woes were a big factor in the Cavs dropping both of those games. That’s actually the reverse for Harden who shot better on the road during the season, scoring 3.2 PPG more, but I don’t trust one of the biggest playoff chokers in the game, so I’ll go under this number tonight.

NBA (0.5 Unit) LeBron James Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:30 PM CT on Prime Video

There are definitely signs that the old man is slowing down and tiring out as this series keeps going, and it’s no surprise with how much of the workload he’s taken on. That has shown up in his shooting, doing 11-for-29 overall the past two games including 0-for-9 from deep. There has to be some positive regression off that kind of shooting for James, who should be in take-over mode with this series getting unexpectedly tight. That fatigue might actually help here, as he would be more likely to pull up from beyond the arc than attack the rim if he’s tired. Volume and inevitable regression make taking a shot on this juicy return worthwhile in my opinion.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Jacob Misiorowski Alt Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+125; Odds via Fanduel): 5:45 PM CT on MLB.TV

The Miz has a standard strikeout number of 6.5 with ridiculous juice applied to the over, so let’s go with the alt number here at an attractive return. That prohibitive juice is on the standard number because he’s cleared it in all but one start this season, against a Toronto team that just doesn’t strike out much. The Nationals don’t either against righties like Misiorowski, but the problem they’re up against is they’ve never seen him before. No Washington player has any at-bats against the Brewer ace, and in his debut season last year that was a recipe for racking up the K’s. So at this nice price I’ll take a shot that he clears this number enroute to reclaiming the league lead in strikeouts tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 10-27 (-10.97 Units) – Recommend: Run For Your Life

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.