Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 05/01

Locks

NBA (0.25 Unit) Cade Cunningham Under 27.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

The problem with being the best option for your team is you become essentially the only option for your team in playoff situations. That’s when a defensive mastermind like Tom Thibodeau can key in on you and at least slow you down a little. That’s what the Knicks have done with Cunningham for the most part in this series, holding him to 25.4 points on average and a 4-1 mark under this total. But the other thing about star players is that you have to pay a premium to bet their overs, and I’m zigging where the book is zagging here tonight.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Denver Nuggets/LA Clippers First Quarter Over 54.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

Maybe, just maybe, these two elite offensive teams loaded with scoring weapons figured out how to put up points on each other. I had expected this to be a high-scoring series going in, and I was dead wrong until Tuesday night when both teams went off. That’s giving me some confidence to trust my priors after those were shaken for four straight games, and I’m going to look for a carryover into the early part of tonight’s game. Having high-scoring first quarters is what these teams are built for, and I’m going over on what I see as an advantageous number here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+115; Odds via Fanduel)

Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (-180): 5:45 PM CT on MLB Network

I’m still adjusting to Taijuan Walker not being an auto-fade after he was routinely ripped to shreds last season. But you can’t argue with the results, as he’s posted excellent surface and underlying metrics so far this season. He also has excellent numbers in his limited action against Washington, so I like the potential for a quiet night out of the Nationals bats. But The Nats are starting a reliever here in Brad Lord, who doesn’t go deep into games, and hands it over to one of the worst bullpens in baseball. The Phillies are already 4-1 against the Nats this season, and should notch another win here.

Colorado Rockies @ SF Giants (-255): 8:45 PM CT on NBCS-BA

Congrats to the Rockies for winning a game yesterday – now they’re on pace to go 27-135 this season. The laughingstock should roll on tonight with Kyle Freeland taking the mound, who has seen his team lose all 6 of his starts. They have to face MLB’s biggest pleasant surprise in the Giants, who have been excellent at home, while the Rockies only have one road win on the season. Justin Verlander isn’t what he used to be, but a Colorado team that’s batting .186 on the road and .213 against righties won’t be tough for him to handle, and send the Giants to another win.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-22 (-4.85 Units) – Recommend: Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.