Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/30

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Jamal Murray Over 26.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN

The Nuggets are on the road facing elimination, so as much as my Wolves fandom seeps into my thinking, I have to stay objective in looking at this game. Denver is not going to mess around here, it’s ride or die with their stars to hopefully extend this series, and that should mean massive volume for Murray here.

With the Wolves doing a relatively good job against Nikola Jokic, the other half of the pick-and-roll that Denver should run until the wheels fall off seems like the best option to target. Murray has at least 22 shot attempts in 4 of 5 games this series, averaging 28.5 points in those 4 games, so volume equals points. And going against the defensively-challenged Mike Conley for a majority of the game sets Murray up to have a big night as he tries to bring his team back to Denver for a Game 7.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics -3 First Half @ Philadelphia 76ers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBCSN

The Celtics are by far the better team in this series, especially on paper, but they need to stop screwing around. This team loses focus after big wins, making Tuesday’s ugly loss not all that unexpected. But they do tend to bounce back well after losses like that, going 17-5 ATS the game following a loss as a favorite while covering by almost 5 points per game.

I think it starts early here, with the motivation of a closeout situation combined with looking to atone for their Game 5 collapse. The first half wasn’t a problem in that game, or in most of this series as Boston has won 4 of the 5 first halves with a plus-8.4 average margin. I’m going back to that well here, at a much lower number than usual, expecting the Celtics to get their stuff together and bounce back right away.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120; Odds via Fanduel): 4:35 PM CT on MLB Network

Arraez is back to his old self after a slow start to the season, compiling a .337 batting average in the month of April. With that has come plenty of bases as you might expect, with 1.7 per game this month. That includes 9 total bases in 4 games against Phillies pitching, and a 2-for-2 night with a triple against Philadelphia starter Andrew Painter who he’ll see again here. Painter doesn’t give up many home runs, but struggles against true hitters like Arraez which explains his .333 opponent on-base average this month, and this second chance in a few weeks that Arraez gets against him should go well for the San Fran second baseman.

Degenerates

NHL Dallas Stars/Minnesota Wild First Period Over 1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

I don’t know a lot about hockey, but my hockey source tells me this is the play to make if you want to watch the Wild game before the Wolves tip off. These teams tend to score early and then slow things down more after that, going over this first period total in 4 of 5 games this series, and 7 of the 9 total meetings on the year. What has my attention is the juice, as typical NHL games have heavy juice applied to the over 1.5 goals in a first period. So getting a normal price point and great trend has me jumping onto the ice for some action tonight.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 12-27 (-10.27 Units) – Recommend: Run For Your Life

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.