Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/30

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Julius Randle Over 20.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

Anthony Edwards gets the headlines, deservedly, but the Wolves would be nowhere near their position right now without Julius Randle. Apologies to Tim Connelly as this has worked out better than I ever expected, and Randle has the opportunity to help boost the Wolves to the next round tonight. Averaging 22.5 points per game in this series and seemingly gaining confidence in every game, look for another big night out of Randle as he continues to punish the team that drafted him.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Luka Doncic Over 31.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

The only thing that can slow Luka down in this series is a stomach bug. Books have adjusted this number to where he’s now 2-2 against it in an attempt to trick bettors into taking the under. I’m not falling for it, especially in a close-out situation where he’ll be even more of a focal point of the offense, so I see another over coming.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Twins -0.5 First 5 Innings @ Cleveland Guardians (+100; Odds via Caesars): 5:10 PM CT on CLEG

The Twins have a significant starting pitcher advantage tonight, and I want to isolate them in the first five innings because of it. Doing that also removes their bullpen and Rocco Baldelli’s managerial moves from the equation, which is essential with this Twins team. Pablo Lopez has been getting stronger as the season goes on, and should be able to hold down the Guardians lineup the first couple times through the order. And if the Twins bats keep their hot streak from the past couple series going, they’ll get to Luis Ortiz pretty easily and take a lead after 5 innings.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Miami Marlins/LA Dodgers Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:10 PM CT on SportsNet LA

After 13 and 17 runs between these teams the past two nights, this total is finally seeing an adjustment. But it’s not enough with how the Dodgers are hitting, and the pitcher they’ll face in this one. Cal Quantrill gets the start for Miami, and he’s been a big help in making them the league’s best over team with his starts averaging 13.2 runs and going 4-1 over the total.

He also has some troubling career numbers against this Dodgers roster, and with LA crushing everything they’re in position to potentially clear this total on their own again. Miami is still a sneaky-good lineup though, and get to face Tony Gonsolin who sees his first action since 2023, so I’m expecting them to contribute here as well. This being a day game in LA with warmer temperatures and the wind blowing out, double-digit runs should be no problem for these teams.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

I tend not to like laying juice in any form with total base props, but this is too good to pass up. I guarantee Cal Quantrill does not want to see Freeman walking to the plate, as the Dodger first baseman has a career .533 average and 1.411 OPS against him. Those are crazy numbers, and with the way Freeman is crushing righties in general this season, I’m expecting a big game from him today.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Chicago Cubs -1.5 @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-105; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on SportsNet PT

The Cubs are the real deal, and this series is going to highlight their dominance. Until last night’s game between these teams that Chicago won 9-0, the Cubs had not faced a team with a losing record, yet are now 18-12 on the season. That’s impressive stuff, and this pitching matchup tonight should create another blowout for them.

The Pirates can’t hit, period, ranking in the bottom five of MLB in just about every offensive category out there. And it gets worse for them against lefties like Matthew Boyd, so don’t expect them to be able to keep up with this Cubs offense. And that offense should tee off against Carmen Mlodzinski and a below-average bullpen, allowing the Cubs to pull away by margin here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-20 (-3.05 Units) – Recommend: Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.