Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/29

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Orlando Magic/Detroit Pistons Under 211.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Prime Video

This total is getting pretty low, cratering from where this series started in the 220 range, but I’m not dissuaded. This is a desperation spot for a Pistons team that prides itself on defense, and might benefit from Orlando missing Franz Wagner tonight. It’s not like these teams are lighting it up, ranking 15th and 16th in offensive rating among the 16 playoff teams so far this postseason.

A couple of games so far in this series have failed to reach even 185 points, and it’s been in games where Detroit is needing to turn in a max effort. Backs against the wall, trying to stave off elimination at home, I think they bring that defensive energy again and these teams’ offensive limitations hold the game under this number.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit): Jalen Duren Under 25.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

The fall-off for Duren in this series has been astounding. Not clearing 20 points-plus-rebounds in any of the four games is shocking for a guy who averaged 30 on that prop for the regular season, and cleared this total in all of the regular season meetings with Orlando! It’s not a matchup issue, it just really seems like a distraction problem with Duren’s private life going public. You can look up those details yourself, but I’m going under this prop tonight with the expectation that he keeps struggling.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Toronto Raptors/Cleveland Cavaliers Over 216.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

This total looks like an overreaction to the Game 4 ugliness we saw on Sunday afternoon. That’s one of the poorer combined offensive performances you’ll see in a playoff game, especially when a good offensive team like Cleveland is involved. All of the other games in this series have cleared this total fairly easily, so let’s not allow one outlier to determine the number tonight.

Hopefully being back home will get James Harden right again, as the apathetic version showed up in Toronto, but having him back to normal will help the Cavaliers get back to their usual scoring level we same in the first two games. If Cleveland bounces back offensively, this total will prove to be far too low tonight.

NBA (1 Unit) Marcus Smart Over 4.5 Assists (+110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

I’m not overreacting to Smart having a bad game on Monday, as the Rockets finally struck back in a desperation spot while totally disrupting LA’s rhythm. Getting the Lakers back home for a potential closeout situation should be a boost for Smart tonight, and I don’t think his role as a main distributor for this team is just going to suddenly evaporate.

It’s possible Austin Reaves returns for the Lakers tonight which will be a change to the team dynamic, but I see that as just adding a lethal scorer that Smart can set up with dimes here. And the pricing on this prop has changed dramatically, as we’re now getting plus juice on a number that carried heavy minus juice just two days ago, so I’ll gladly take the discount here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Chicago Cubs Team Total Over 4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:10 PM CT on MLB.TV

This might be the last chance for Padres starter Matt Waldron, who has been just awful in two starts so far this season. It’s creepy how consistent that awfulness has been, posting stat lines of 8 hits, 6 runs, 6 earned, and one home run allowed in both of his outings. Those came against the Rockies and Angels, teams that are far less potent offensively than the Cubs, who have proved it in this series with 7 and 8 runs so far. The Padre bullpen behind Waldron is below average in ERA too, and that’s with Mason Miller included in the calculations. So with a day game making Petco Park more hitter friendly, look for Chicago to hang another big number in this game.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 11-27 (-10.69 Units) – Recommend: Run For the Hills

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.