Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/29

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers -4.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 5:00 PM CT on NBA TV

I really think Milwaukee takes their cue from the Heat’s performance last night and does the ol’ 1-2-3-Cancun in this one. I just don’t see what motivation they’ll have after watching Damian Lillard go down last game, which was their one chance to make something positive happen in this series. But it’s not like they’ve had an answer for the Pacers so far, and especially not early in games.

The Bucks have faced an average 13.3 point halftime deficit in this series, even trailing by 10 at halftime of their Game 3 win. Milwaukee just doesn’t have anything outside of Giannis going nuclear, and even that hasn’t been enough, so look for the Pacers to get rolling early again as they send the Bucks to Cancun.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Karl-Anthony Towns Over 37.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

Knicks fans are getting to take rides on The KAT Experience this postseason, which is a combination of funny and sad as a Wolves fan. Good KAT equals wins while bad KAT equals losses, something we’re all too familiar with in Minnesota, and has been the case in this series. KAT has gone over this number in all three Knicks wins with 38.7 on average, and fell flat on his face with just 16 in their Game 2 loss. I’m expecting the Knicks to close out the series tonight, and with it a quality KAT game that gets him over this prop total.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics Team Total Over 104.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on NBA TV

There have been times in this series when the Magic have done a great job of running Boston off the three-point line, being physical, and keeping that elite offense in check. But I see that having a limited shelf life, especially in a close-out game up in Boston where the Celtics will get a friendly whistle. We haven’t seen a true Celtics three-point barrage yet as they’ve shot some truly ugly percentages in this series, and if one of those comes tonight they’ll clear this total easily.

NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Clippers -1.5 @ Denver Nuggets (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

If you’re not a Wolves fan, this has been the most fun series of the playoffs. But it has really felt like the Clippers have been the better team throughout all four games, with Denver’s OT and buzzer-beater wins feeling more like luck that’s keeping them in it. The Nuggets just aren’t deep enough, and with injuries hampering Russell Westbrook and Michael Porter Jr, that lack of depth is set to catch up to them even more. I haven’t seen the Clippers play to their potential yet, but Kawhi Leonard is becoming too much for Denver to handle, and they should be able to cover this short number tonight.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Miami Marlins/LA Dodgers Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:10 PM CT on Fanduel Sports FL

Another game, another over for this Marlins team. Their bats are sneaky, and with the Dodgers still trying to figure out a starter for tonight, should be able to produce again here against the LA staff. And of course the Dodgers just keep rolling offensively, and I don’t see that stopping tonight even with an ace on the mound.

Sandy Alcantara has not been his usual elite self so far, and the Dodgers roster has a career .306 batting average against him. Alcantara is also Miami’s only tradeable asset so they won’t wear him out, instead letting an awful bullpen get shelled by the hot Dodger bats. His name as a starter is enough to hold this total down though, so I’m jumping on the over with the league’s best lineup facing the best over team.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 14-19 (-3.25 Units) – Recommend: Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.