Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/28

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics -6.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

My sense here is that Boston has the Sixers right where they want them, and that’s always dangerous for a Boston opponent in the playoffs. Once the Celtics start leaning on you in the postseason it’s over, and they should be able to close out this series tonight. I think that starts right away with Boston being able to establish a solid early lead and then salt this game away.

Boston was always the better team in this matchup by a wide margin, despite their ugly Game 2 loss which will happen when you shoot 26% from deep. But the Celtics have found the range in the two games since, and that should put away a Sixers team that never had the shooting to be able to keep up in this series. A barrage of three’s to start this game in a home closeout situation is what I’m expecting to see, and the Celtics should cover this first half number as they have in each win during this series.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Josh Hart Alt Over 9.5 Rebounds (+110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on NBC

I don’t know what gets into Josh Hart in the playoffs, but he turns into a monster on the boards. We saw it last season when he had double-digit rebounds in 9 of 18 playoff games, the year before when he averaged an incredible 11.5 rebounds per game, and it’s continuing so far this postseason. Rebounding totals of 14, 13, 9, and 9 in this series prove that he just flips a switch and turns into Dennis Rodman, but books have taken notice. His rebounds prop of 8.5 is heavily juiced to the over so I’m looking to the alt market, especially since the series returns to MSG where he was dominant on the glass in the first two games.

MLB (0.5 Unit) NY Mets Team Total Over 4.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on MLB.TV

I have no idea what’s wrong with the Mets, it’s a mystery that the whole league is trying to figure out. But I have to believe that this is a great spot for them to bounce back, and I’m getting a good even money price for it to happen. Hopefully a day off after getting swept by the lowly Rockies gives them time to get their heads right, and if you can’t get the bats right against tonight’s opposing pitching, just don’t even bother playing the 131 games left on the schedule.

You get Zach Littell, at home, with the wind blowing out, and the Washington righty has been shelled in consecutive starts. Littell doesn’t pitch very deep into games even when he isn’t being a gas can, so that gives the Mets plenty of at-bats against a bullpen that’s 27th in ERA and dead last in WAR. I know things are ugly with this Mets squad right now, but this is one of the best setups they could ask for to show some signs of life, and I’ll buy low.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Jose Soriano Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+115; Odds via Fanduel): 6:40 PM CT on MLB.TV

We’re all waiting with bated breath for the Jose Soriano blowup, but it just isn’t coming. I don’t think it shows up here either, despite him showing some cracks last time out with giving up a lot of hits. Teams simply can’t score against him though, with just one run allowed all season, and that came against an elite Atlanta lineup.

The White Sox do not have an elite lineup to say the least, and they’re bottom-5 in most hitting metrics against righties like Soriano. One sneaky thing working in my favor here is that most of his starts have been held to a fairly restrictive pitch count, which shortens his outing a lessens the opportunity for the opponent to score. But the simple fact is with a juicy return like this, the under is a must-play until something changes.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Jose Soriano Alt Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+135; Odds via Fanduel)

I don’t understand the pricing on this at all, with an 80 cent straddle between the -145 juice on his standard K prop of over 5.5, and the first rung up the ladder here. Books are right to heavily juice his regular K prop since he’s 4-2 over that 5.5 number on the year, but let’s consider those two games where he didn’t clear it. He had exactly 4 strikeouts against both the Cubs and Blue Jays, two teams that are 23rd and 27th, respectively, in K-rate against righties this season. The White Sox are striking out at the 5th-highest rate against righties this season, so the price is definitely right to take a shot on this alt number.

MLB (0.75 Unit) KC Royals/Athletics Over 9.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on MLB.TV

I just love seeing the Athletics come home to their temporary Triple-A “smallpark” in Sacramento. If you’re an over bettor you should too, as the over is now 9-1 in A’s home games on the year and the weather conditions haven’t even gotten close to what they’ll be in mid-summer when the ball will really be jumping. It’s an interesting matchup here against the Royals, who are used to smaller park dimensions after Kauffman Stadium underwent a remodel to make it more hitter-friendly.

A homestand of two series is the main reason why KC is 8-2 to the over in their past 10 games, so a smooth transition to the dimensions in Sacramento should help keep that trend rolling. The pitching matchup here isn’t one that jumps off the page, but it is important to note that A’s starter Aaron Civale has a 2.57 ERA in his 4 road starts, but gave up 5 runs on 11 hits in his lone home outing. These are also two teams with bullpen issues, particularly the Royals who are 29th in bullpen ERA, so I see plenty of scoring chances throughout the game tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 11-25 (-9.37 Units) – Recommend: Fade Hard

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.