Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/27

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Denver Nuggets Under 222.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 9:30 PM CT on NBC

There should’ve been spots throughout this series to find overs, on either a quarter or half basis, but there’s no sense looking for those any longer. Minnesota to their credit has kept one of the most efficient offenses in NBA history stuck in first gear, while also dictating that these games be played at their preferred slower tempo.

That’s held this series to 3-1 under the total after the regular season meetings went 3-1 to the over, and I see more unders for as long as this series plays out. With no more Donte DiVincenzo or Anthony Edwards, along with an unhealthy version of Naz Reid, the Wolves offense is not what’s going to get them the clinching win if they get it. I’m looking for defense and an even more deliberate pace from here on out, and it starts with a bet on the under tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Tim Hardaway Jr Over 11.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

I’m not bothered that he had some suspect games at Target Center, or that this number is factoring in the home game bump for role players. Hardaway is a wolf killer that’s going to find his shot, and eventually score at volume against a Minnesota roster that keeps getting thinner.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Bruce Brown Over 13 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

Same story here as with Hardaway. I’ve been on both of these guys with these props for every game of this series, and I’m not stopping now as Brown should also get his at home. The large spread in this game suggests a potential blowout as Denver bounces back, and in that situation both Brown and Hardaway would see extended usage in garbage time.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Ausar Thompson Over 19.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on NBC

I don’t know what to make of this series, especially since I thought the Magic were a dead team walking. What I do know is that how Detroit plays, with Cade Cunningham having such an outsized role in every facet, is not sustainable in playoff basketball.

Orlando can throw too much size at him, and Detroit has had to get contributions from secondary options like Thompson. Game 1 saw an incredible effort from Cade, and that held Thompson’s production down to just 16 PRA. But the next two games have shown how the Pistons need to play, getting Thompson involved for 20 and 28 PRA, and I think that strategy continues tonight.

NBA (0.5 Unit) OKC Thunder/Phoenix Suns Over 213.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on Peacock

The Suns are on the brink of elimination here, but it’s not a situation where I’d expect them to tighten up and fight for their playoff lives like they would if this was a tight series. Phoenix has nothing to lose from loosening up and letting it fly tonight, which might even be the recipe for getting them a win here. And after Game 1 where they only managed 84 points on a horrible shooting night, they’ve been able to score enough to where this level of a total becomes very reachable.

The Suns have proven that they can’t stop the OKC machine from scoring, as the Thunder have been extraordinarily consistent across 3 games with 119, 120, and 121 points. That kind of contribution from OKC again here, combined with the Suns playing a more loose and free style of basketball, should send this game over a very low number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-22 (-6.67 Units) – Recommend: Fade Hard

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.