Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/26

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) LA Lakers +5 @ Houston Rockets (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on NBC

I’m taking a stand here, not necessarily on the Lakers, but by default since it’s an anti-Rockets stance. I just see a team ready to quit, especially after an unreal blown opportunity in Game 3 that basically sealed their fate in this series.

Houston seems to hate their coach, they seem to be tired of Kevin Durant who may or may not play, and this offense is bad even with KD on the floor since it has no direction thanks to not having a point guard. That’s all adding up to a 1-2-3-Cancun situation here in my opinion, so sprinkle the moneyline but definitely take this key number of points with the Lakers.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit): LA Lakers/Houston Rockets Under 207.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Games 1 and 2 of this series were fairly easy unders, and so was Game 3 until it wasn’t. They call it overtime for a reason, and that’s what it took to send that one over the total despite a 71-point first quarter.

Both teams have to lean on their defenses in this series, Houston because they have no offensive rhythm, LA because of missing stars, and it’s just not a matchup that is going to erupt for lots of scoring. These are such slow-paced teams, particularly Houston at 29th in tempo, that a playoffs environment is going to keep holding them to incredibly low-scoring affairs.

Extra Bonus Bet (1 Unit) Marcus Smart Alt Over 5.5 Assists (+160; Odds via Fanduel)

I am truly shocked to see Smart’s assist prop come in at just 4.5, even with the heavy juice applied to the over. This man has taken on a completely new role for the Lakers since returning from injury to a team missing Doncic and Reaves, but books haven’t caught up. He hasn’t dished out fewer than 7 dimes in those 5 games, hitting double digits twice including last game, and averaging 8.4 in the process. Going up the ladder of alt numbers is a plus-juice paradise, so I’m playing these as well:

0.75 Unit – Alt Over 6.5 Assists (+265)

0.5 Unit – Alt Over 7.5 Assists (+600)

0.25 Unit – Alt Over 8.5 Assists (+1120)

0.1 Unit – Alt Over 9.5 Assists (+1500)

MLB (0.75 Unit) NY Yankees/Houston Astros Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:10 PM CT on YES

The Yankees are red hot at the plate, hammering Houston’s bad pitching staff for 12 and 8 runs to start this series. The scary part of that is Aaron Judge doesn’t even have a hit in those two games, so it’s safe to say they’re not even at their ceiling yet. I think they can continue it today against Spencer Arrighetti, who has been eased back from his injury with starts against two bad offenses.

Even if the Yankees don’t tee off against Arrighetti, they will against this Astros bullpen that is full of weak arms and has had to take on a lot of work the past two nights. But I think they’ll need run support for Luis Gil, who has a 4.11 ERA despite not facing any teams that are good against righthanded pitching. It’s why his expected ERA is 5.25, and his luck runs out today against an Astros team that’s top-4 in every important metric against righties. With two extremely dangerous lineups and mediocre-at-best pitching, this total is high for a good reason.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-16 (-1.67 Units) – Recommend: Probably Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.