Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/25

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Denver Nuggets/Minnesota Timberwolves First Half Over 111.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ABC

Yeah, so this same pick in Thursday’s game fell spectacularly on its face, but I’m nothing if not stubborn. It imploded thanks to Denver scoring 11 points in the first quarter, the same Denver team that was 3rd in the league for first quarter scoring, making for a 36-point opening quarter that I see massive positive regression from tonight.

One of the most efficient offenses in NBA history is not going to shoot 34% for the game again, and its two best players aren’t going to combine to go 12-for-43 from the floor again. So more points are coming from Denver in this game, but I’m still convinced that the Nuggets can’t defend, especially with Aaron Gordon out or hobbled at best.

These teams have proven in their other meetings that first halves are where they get up and down the floor, which is also the norm at Target Center this season. And games where Gordon is out but Nikola Jokic plays trend very heavily to the over, so thanks for the discounted number here, I’m sticking with the early over.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit) Tim Hardaway Jr Over 10.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

Hardaway didn’t help much with the poor shooting overall by Denver in Game 3, but he still cleared his points prop with 11 on the night. He continues to clear these low bars set by books against Minnesota, and a shorter rotation with Gordon’s injury means even more opportunity in a game where Denver should collectively score better.

Extra Bonus Bet (1 Unit) Bruce Brown Over 10.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Just like the Hardway points prop, this one is automatic in this series. Make it 17 of his past 18 games against Minnesota where he’s cleared this number of PRA, as his do-it-all contributions were on display again Thursday night. He also benefits from Gordon’s injury to get more minutes and usage that should send him over this total again tonight.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Karl-Anthony Towns Over 20.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:00 PM CT on NBC

This is a sharp number, but KAT keeps narrowly clearing it against the Hawks whenever they play. The Knicks are essentially in a must-win situation here, not being able to afford going back home down 3-1 in the series, so it should be all hands on deck. That means more minutes for KAT assuming he can stay out of foul trouble, and more offense run through him as New York leans on star players. I keep banging the drum on Atlanta not having an answer for him as long as he gets the right usage, and I think tonight’s situation demands it and will pay off with this prop.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Jacob Misiorowski Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+105; Odds via Fanduel): 6:10 PM CT on MLB.TV

It’s not really feast or famine with The Miz this season, more like feast and famine simultaneously as some of his starts have been an adventure. He’s not giving up a lot of hits, but walks are and runs have been coming against him as a result which is unusual to see. Fortunately though, he gets out of the jams he creates by striking out the side fairly often, and he’s just 2 K’s back of the MLB leader right now.

He’ll take over the lead today with what should be quite a few punch outs against the Pirates, a team that’s below-average for their K-rate. They’ve had limited experience with Misiorowski, but it has not gone well for them as he logged a 43.5% K-rate in those cumulative at-bats. With the Brewers needing a bounce back today, look for The Miz to ring up plenty of Pirates hitters in this one to pay off a juicy return.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 14-18 (-2.42 Units) – Recommend: Probably Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.