Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/24

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics/Philadelphia 76ers First Quarter Over 55.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Prime Video

The Celtics and Sixers have met a total of 6 times this year, and only once has a first quarter cleared this high of a total, with several falling well short. So I think it’s telling that we’re seeing such a high number here, as books have made a slight adjustment to account for a couple of factors. First is that Philly home games always tend to get wild in the first quarter, with the Sixers both scoring and allowing exactly 30.0 PPG in opening frames at home.

Second is the mood Boston should come into this game with, having had a few days to stew over their ugly home loss in Game 2 on Tuesday. The Celtics love bouncing back with a vengeance in situations like this, and should hang a big early number against a porous Sixer defense. But if Boston is going to keep playing extreme drop coverage and allowing the Sixers to shoot at will from deep, those shots are going to drop and create a higher-scoring environment than expected tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): VJ Edgecombe Over 19.5 Points+Assists (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

Boston’s primary concern defensively is always going to be Tyrese Maxey, with Paul George being second. That leaves Edgecombe third on their list of priorities, and he’s found plenty of success against the Celtics because of it.

Trying to slow him down with Payton Pritchard or Sam Hauser is not going to work as we saw in Game 2 with Edgecombe dropping 30 points. That’s his second 30-point game against Boston this season, with some other very solid performances mixed in, and I think he can somewhat fly under the radar again tonight.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Marcus Smart Alt Over 5.5 Assists (+125; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Prime Video

Get in on this now before Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves return for LA, because the dynamic is completely different without them playing. The Lakers have figured out how to maximize Smart’s ability at the point in this series, as he’s dished out 8 and 7 assists in the two games so far. Despite plenty of minutes, that’s something he didn’t even get close to accomplishing in the regular season meetings where both Doncic and Reaves played all three games, so it’s a product of their absence.

In fact, Smart had only gone over this assist prop 3 times this calendar year until returning from injury for the final two games of the regular season. He suddenly became a dime factory, dishing out 17 in those two games and then another 15 in this series, so this alt number is definitely worth playing. I’m not mad at going up the ladder either, as I can’t explain it but I’m happy to capitalize on it.

NBA (0.75 Unit) San Antonio Spurs/Portland Trail Blazers Under 220.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:30 PM CT on Prime Video

Obviously the story of this series is Victor Wembanyama’s health, as he’s unlikely to play tonight. But we have plenty of data to look at for how these teams match up without him in the game, as Wemby missed all three regular season meetings. Those games went 3-0 to the under, and 2-1 under tonight’s total, with the only higher-scoring game reaching 225 points back in early January.

But since then, Portland has become a very defensive-oriented team with an offense that really struggled in the last month-plus of the season. So I’m not worried about the Blazers going off tonight against a Wemby-less Spurs team, since they’re still extremely capable defensively without him.

They’ll have to lean on that defense here, as the offense tends to get stagnant without him, and the big wings for Portland can help shut down San Antonio’s three-point shooting. That adds up to another low-scoring game in my opinion, and I see more of the same from Games 1 and 2 that failed to reach even 110 points.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Emmet Sheehan Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+105; Odds via Fanduel): 9:15 PM CT on Apple TV

The Cubs are red hot, having won 10 of their past 11 games while scoring 7.3 runs per game in that stretch. It’s true, they’ve been feasting on the hapless Mets and Phillies to make that hot streak possible, but I still see a lineup that’s locked in and able to jump on average or below-average pitching. That’s what they’ll face here against Sheehan, who I keep targeting as LA’s backend starter with solid success.

In his four starts this season, the righty has allowed 4, 4, 3, and 2 runs, with the last one against a weak Colorado team looking like the outlier. Otherwise he’s been reliably able to give up enough production to clear this prop total, and against offenses much worse than Chicago’s, so this nice price has me expecting him to give up a few more to a hot lineup.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-16 (-1.05 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.