Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/23

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Denver Nuggets/Minnesota Timberwolves First Half Over 114.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on Prime Video

While I think this is an intense playoff atmosphere where there will be more defense than usual for an NBA game, first halves are just different between these teams. And they’re different at Target Center overall this season, with the Wolves both allowing and scoring more points before halftime than after in their home games. That includes both times the Nuggets visited, with first halves of 115 and 122 points in those games.

With 124 and 128 first half points in the games so far in this series, these squads are playing much looser early on and I’d expect that to continue here, as Wolves home games tend to tighten up later. I don’t hate the full-game under and will probably be looking to jump in on the live under at halftime tonight, but first halves between these teams have a distinct way of playing out that’s easy to track and I’m hopping on the trend here.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Tim Hardaway Jr Over 10.5 Points (+100; Odds via DraftKings)

Hardaway returned to his wolf-killer form in Game 2 with 16 points, but the books chose not to adjust his points prop. They don’t understand his role on this Denver team and how it shines when he plays Minnesota, so this is a significant mispricing by them and I’m jumping in again.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Bruce Brown Over 10.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-120; Odds via Fanduel)

Books obviously don’t realize how much they’re opening themselves up on this prop either, as Brown is another wolf-killer that keeps having success. With 18 PRA in Game 1 and another 12 in Game 2, he has now gone over tonight’s total in 16 of his past 17 games against the Wolves. I don’t care that role players do less in playoff road games, these guys simply get it done against Minnesota and I’m hedging my happiness with their props tonight.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Karl-Anthony Towns Over 20.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Prime Video

Holding a ticket on KAT to go over this same number in Game 2, then watching him put up 14 points in the 3rd quarter but 4 points in all other quarters combined, brought back so many love-hate memories. That was obviously an ugly loss for the Knicks and an atrocious 4th quarter where nobody could make a shot, KAT included.

Jalen Brunson also tried to take that game over, but his terrible shooting night while hogging the ball kept KAT from getting the opportunities he needed to clear his points prop. New York should be more deliberate about getting their center the ball in this game where they have to bounce back, because Atlanta just has no answer for him when he’s on. That makes me happy to stick with the handicap that tells me KAT is plenty capable of clearing this total and will get back to it tonight.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Cam Schlittler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 5:10 PM CT on FOX

Schlittler is a strikeout pitcher at this point, but he’s not being priced like it yet. This number, at this juice, is probably not going to be something we see with the budding star righty for long. Maybe after he rings up a lot of Red Sox in a high profile game like this the number will adjust, but for now I’m going to capitalize on the situation and matchup.

Schlittler has gone over this number in 4 of his 5 starts, including logging 8 K’s against a Tampa team that is the least strikeout-prone in baseball. Boston strikes out at the 8th-highest rate against righties though, and in his limited action against their hitters, Schlitter has fanned them a lot. This should be a statement game on national TV against a team that simply doesn’t hit well, and I see Schlittler clearing this total fairly easily.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 14-15 (-1.05 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.