Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/23

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Orlando Magic/Boston Celtics First Quarter Under 51.5 (-115; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on TNT

This depends heavily on the status of Jayson Tatum who seems to be a game-time decision, so keep an eye on his status tonight. The Celtics most likely don’t need Tatum to beat the Magic, but they do need him for their offense to fire on all cylinders.

Without him in the lineup, the Celtics will rely even more on their excellent defense to shut down a weak Magic offense, so this is a tough situation for Orlando no matter what. The Magic will have to hope that Tatum’s absence gives them a shred of a chance, so expect their defense to clamp down as well and replicate something like Game 1’s start of just 44 first quarter points.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 First Quarter (-115; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on NBA TV

The Cavaliers covered this number with ease in Game 1, leading after a quarter by 7 points in a game they didn’t actually play very well in. You could tell that Cleveland was rusty from their layoff during the Play-In Tournament, while the Heat used their run through that event to stay more competitive than they should have.

Miami shot the ball far better in Game 1 than their season averages, so regression is coming in that department. And with the Cavs now 4-0 to this number in first quarters against the Heat this season, and still by far the most dominant first quarter home team in the league, I like them to get out to another hot start tonight.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Golden State Warriors/Houston Rockets First Quarter Under 50 (-115; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on TNT

Jimmy Butler was right, that Game 1 between these teams was something out of the NBA of 30 years ago. Certainly not what the Warriors are known for in the Steph Curry era, but exactly what these teams have been known for all season against each other. That’s now 6 meetings on the year for the Warriors and Rockets, with a 5-1 record to the under, as well as a 5-1 record under the first quarter total.

Those first quarters have averaged just 44.0 points as the elite defenses clamp down, and should again tonight. The Rockets were never an elite offensive team this season, but ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency and have a player in Amen Thompson who might be the perfect defender for Curry. I think we get more of the ugly NBA from yesteryear tonight, and that keeps this first quarter quiet.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Texas Rangers/Athletics Over 9.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 9:05 PM CT on RSN

I missed the boat on last night’s 13-run affair between these teams, but I will not miss it again. The total yesterday was a full run higher than today, and the discount here is due to JP Sears starting for the Athletics. But he’s due for serious regression after padding his stats against some weak lineups so far, and the Rangers are finally getting better at the plate with Wyatt Langford back healthy.

But the A’s might tee off on Kumar Rocker who gets the start for Texas, and has been hit hard in both of his road starts. He also has bad numbers against the A’s lineup in limited action against them, and the A’s have been excellent at putting the ball in play this season. With the small ballpark and wind consistently blowing out in Sacramento, the current mark of 7-3 to the over there is set to continue as it gets warmer, and tonight should be no different.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-13 (-0.2 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.