Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/24

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) NY Knicks @ Detroit Pistons +1.5 (-115; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on TNT

Let’s be clear about where this series truly stands. Yes, these teams are tied 1-1, but it really should be the Pistons with a 2-0 lead as they’ve outplayed the Knicks for essentially 7 quarters of basketball. The fourth quarter in Game 1 is the only thing keeping New York from that 0-2 hole, but if the Pistons keep playing as well as they have, especially at home, their second win in this series is coming tonight. Let’s not forget either that once the Pistons figured out who they were this season, they beat the Knicks in 3 of 4 meetings. This number has brand name bias written all over it, but I trust the Pistons to take control of this series here.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Cade Cunningham Over 36.5 Points+Assists (-120; Odds via DraftKings)

The situation here calls for maximum minutes and involvement out of Cunningham, and the Knicks have had trouble stopping him all season. He’s averaged 37.5 on this prop against New York in the regular and postseason meetings, and the increased usage should push him over the top again here.

NBA (1 Unit) OKC Thunder First Half Team Total Over 59.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on TNT

I’m a fan of consistency, and it doesn’t get much more consistent than this. The Thunder, as the league’s highest-scoring first half team, have run it up on the Grizzlies before halftime in every meeting this year. OKC is 6-0 over this total with 67.8 first half points on average against Memphis, who also happens to be 25th in first half points allowed. This number should be much higher but is held down artificially by the Thunder being a smaller favorite on the road, so long story short this is my favorite play of the NBA playoffs thus far.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) OKC Thunder First Quarter Team Total Over 29.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Yep, both. I’m not quite as in love with this number as the first half since OKC is averaging 32.3 first quarter points against Memphis, only beating it on average by 2.8 points instead of 8.3, but again, consistency is the key. The Thunder have gone over this number in all 6 meetings, and Memphis is dead last in first quarter points allowed at home. I think the Grizzlies are a dead team, with no interest in defense, and the Thunder should do whatever they want early in this game.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals -0.5 First Five Innings (+110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:45 PM CT on MLB Network

This is once again just a blatantly ridiculous pricing of Baltimore given the pitching matchup. I don’t want to say it too loudly in case the books hear me, but this Orioles squad simply cannot hit lefthanded pitching. So why is this number so advantageous when the Nationals are starting an excellent lefty in Mackenzie Gore, while Baltimore is trotting out a terrible starter?

The O’s are not going to produce off Gore, plain and simple, as he’s been excellent at home and this Baltimore lineup is in shambles against any southpaw. The Nats should easily get to Cade Povich though, as they’ve been hitting very well at home, are 3rd in F5 scoring at home, and Povich has been hit hard in every start. A lot of money came in on Washington for this game after they took the first two of the series, and I think they at least get off to a good start in tonight’s series finale.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 14-12 (+1.2 Units) – Recommend: Tail

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.