Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/22

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Paolo Banchero Over 21.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

My sense is that Detroit will play better in this game, but that doesn't mean they’ll have the answer for Banchero. That solution has evaded them all season, as the Magic star has put up very consistent point totals of 24, 24, and 31 in the regular season meetings, then another 23 in Game 1 of this series. You could say that he was a bit of a free-throw merchant at times in the regular season meetings, but he didn’t get much production from the stripe on Sunday and still scored at this level. The Magic deserve credit for defying all expectations to play this well, and Banchero always thrives when they play well as a team, so look for another solid night from him here.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Jalen Williams Over 18.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN

Favorites in Game 2’s are getting mauled, going 1-5 both straight up and ATS with a minus-74 ATS margin overall on Monday and Tuesday. So the Thunder who are laying around 17 points for this game better be careful, crazy things are happening. I’m not calling for the upset here or taking a stance on either side of the line, but I do think it’s worth noting that were the Suns to stay competitive here like the other underdogs have, that means more work for their starters like Williams.

He’s gone over this number in 3 of 5 games against Phoenix, including Game 1 where he had 22 points in just 29 minutes. He only played more than 30 minutes once against the Suns though, scoring 23 points, and his 24.1 points-per-40 minutes stat is important to factor in here. If my theory is right that Phoenix is more competitive tonight, or even if Williams gets more minutes regardless, plenty of work means plenty of points for OKC’s second-most important offensive weapon.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Jose Soriano Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+120; Odds via Fanduel): 2:07 PM CT on MLB.TV

Jose Soriano Day is becoming a weekly standard in my life, as I’m always looking for a way to capitalize on his current dominance, and the fact that books aren’t pricing it in properly yet. I’d like to bet his strikeout prop every time he takes the mound since that’s always a fairly low number, but the Blue Jays team he faces today is one of the best in baseball at not striking out.

So I’m happy to go with this juicy return on the hits prop for a pitcher that’s borderline unhittable right now. Soriano hasn’t allowed this many hits all season, with Atlanta getting 3 off him and they have a case for the best lineup in baseball. Toronto is not firing on all cylinders offensively yet, and have weak cumulative numbers against Soriano in limited action. This is just too juicy a return to pass up for a guy who has only allowed 11 hits in 5 starts, and should continue this dominant run today.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Braves/Washington Nationals Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:45 PM CT on MLB.TV

The young Nationals can hit, there doesn’t seem to be any question about that anymore, especially when they’re up against lefthanded pitching. They’ll see a lefty in Martin Perez who starts for the Braves tonight, and Washington is now a top-3 offense for batting average, OPS, and weighted metrics against southpaws. Perez’s numbers this season are a bit of an illusion since he’s faced some teams that are just plain bad against lefties, so he’s due for regression here.

Washington is going to need all the runs they can get though, as I think Atlanta jumps all over Zack Littell in this game. They have a cumulative .317 average against the righty, and are hitting righthanded pitching extremely well overall. Littell is coming off a blow-up start, but even if he gets considerably better today the horrible bullpen behind him will give up runs as they’re still dead last in WAR. This has already been a high-scoring series which is typical for the Nats, who are 17-7 to the over including 9-2 at home, so look for another tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 14-14 (-0.10 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.