Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/21

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics First Half Team Total Over 59.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Peacock

The past few years of Celtics playoff basketball has seen them do this over and over again, taking a low-seeded team to the woodshed in the first round at TD Garden. The Sixers are no different, as they’re lucky to even be here given all the injuries sustained this season, and can’t hold up against a Boston onslaught when the Celtics get rolling. That was evident in Game 1 as Boston rolled to 64 points before halftime thanks to a very balanced offense.

With Joel Embiid out and no true rim protection for Philly, the Celtics can get to the hoop for easy points a lot more frequently, creating far less variance than their usual three-point heavy approach. They also look to run on misses a lot more early on in these games, slowing down to their league-slowest pace later in the game. I’m also looking to the first half number here because Boston has gone over their full-game team total just once in 5 total meetings with the Sixers, but cleared the first half number 3 times.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Portland Trail Blazers/San Antonio Spurs Under 220.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBC

The total for the first meeting between these teams back around Thanksgiving was 240 points. After each successive meeting failed to reach the posted total, putting these teams 4-0 to the under against each other, the number has cratered to here and I don’t think it’s enough. I mentioned on Sunday for Game 1 that it was the first time Portland was getting to see Wembanyama this season, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the rightful DPOY finally playing kept the Blazers to just 98 points.

The Spurs have been able to slow down Portland all season anyway, and this Blazers offense has really been a mess in March and April. The tempo for both teams has shifted dramatically slower down the stretch of the season as well, so with two defensive-minded teams in a pivotal Game 2 environment, I’m seeing this game cash another under.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Athletics/Seattle Mariners Over 7.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:40 PM CT on MLB.TV

This game might be at T-Mobile Park where runs are typically tough to come by, but a total this low with the pitching matchup we have here must be exploited. I just don’t have any faith in Jacob Lopez for the A’s, even against a Seattle offense that can’t hit lefties very well at all. He has a lot of issues with command, and those free passes keep hurting him and have created this 6.38 ERA on the year.

Meanwhile, it’s looking like Luis Castillo simply doesn’t have it anymore, as the hits and runs have been piling up against him for three straight starts. The Athletics have been very good at hitting for average and power against righties in general so far, and I think they can further Castillo’s troubles tonight. With a combustible A’s bullpen and a Seattle pen that’s due for regression, the total here is just too low for what might be a night of poor pitching.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145; Odds via Fanduel)

The return here is too juicy to ignore for a player that’s having a hot month. McNeil is batting .304 in April and averaging 1.4 bases per game in the process, so it’s a great time to see a pitcher he has owned in the past. Luis Castillo has given up 2 singles, 2 doubles, and 2 home runs to McNeil in 13 at-bats, good for a .462 average and 1.577 OPS, so in a game where I’m expecting more offense than the market, this price is too good to pass up.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-15 (-0.72 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.