Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/20

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Denver Nuggets First Quarter Over 56.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:30 PM CT on NBC

The Nuggets were obviously rusty heading into Game 1 on Saturday, they started ice cold from the floor, and the first quarter still got all the way to 56 points. There should be some serious positive regression out of Denver to create a hotter start tonight, which could be bad news for Wolves fans, but should see the home squad score much better to start the game.

And there’s no reason to believe the Wolves can’t keep pace, as the Nuggets just don’t play very good defense, and Minnesota showed they can exploit those holes right away with their Saturday start. With Anthony Edwards likely ramping up even more for this game coming off his absence, I think a fast and high-scoring start is coming tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Bruce Brown Over 11.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

After another good game with all-around contributions, Brown has seen his PRA number tick up ever so slightly. But I don’t think it’s even close to where it needs to be, as Brown keeps tallying big nights against Minnesota, having gotten to double-digit PRA in 15 of his past 16 meetings with the Wolves so look for another here.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Tim Hardaway Jr Over 10.5 Points (+100; Odds via Fanduel)

Hardaway only managing 7 points on Saturday was maybe the biggest surprise of the game for me. This guy’s consistency against Minnesota is remarkable, and he got meaningful minutes, so I have to go back to the well with him. The number comes down and is more advantageous tonight, so look for Hardaway to produce a lot more in this Game 2.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Karl-Anthony Towns Over 20.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on NBC

Watching KAT have playoff success brings a lot of confused emotions for me, but good for him and good for anyone who’s backing his points prop. After 25 points in New York’s Game 1 win despite dealing with foul trouble, I’m expecting more of the same from Towns who did not see any change to his points prop number heading into tonight.

This is simply a good matchup for him as the Hawks really don’t have a center, and Onyeka Okongwu has shown consistently that he can’t slow down KAT who put up 21 and 36 in his two regular season meetings. If KAT stays out of foul trouble and logs the kind of minutes the other starters did, his points-per-40 stat of 25.9 points comes into play and he should cruise over this total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 12-18 (-1.62 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.