Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/19

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs -10.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:00 PM CT on NBC

These teams met three times in the regular season, with the Spurs winning and covering in two of them, while posting a +7.5 total ATS margin. Those two wins were by 11 and 13 points, so only needing to lay 10.5 in this one seems like kind of a bargain. There’s one small detail to note though, which is that Victor Wembanyama did not play in any of those meetings.

That’s the single most important factor in my mind, far more important than anything else you can come up with. I just don’t see Portland, who relies so much on getting to the rim, being able to do that against the best rim protector in the game. Wemby should go off in his first playoff game, and I think it’s more than enough to carry the Spurs to a blowout win.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Victor Wembanyama Over 3.5 Blocks (+100; Odds via Fanduel)

The matchup angle of Portland needing to get into the paint is real, as the Blazers are 27th in three-point percentage and need to get points inside. That’s why they get blocked at the 4th-highest rate in the league, and they’ve yet to face Wemby this season. He’s averaging 3.1 blocks per game on the year, and I think the matchup and situation require a play on this even money return.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Jacob Misiorowski Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+105; Odds via Fanduel): 12:40 PM CT on MLB.TV

I’ll admit that the Mis is not what you’d expect from him so far this season, just in the sense that he’s not unbeatable. His earned runs are a cause for concern, but I only care about strikeouts today and I think he can help bettors take advantage of this juicy number.

The big righty has had double digit strikeouts in two of his four starts, while one of the others he was fighting the flu and the final one came against a Rays team that simply doesn’t strike out. He still fanned 7 Tampa batters that day, so asking him to reach that level again, while not having to face the least strikeout-prone team in the league, feels like a bargain. I think the earned runs and shorter outings are impacting props like this, but the guy can still mow down batters like crazy and I think he pays off this nice price today.

MLB (0.5 Unit) St Louis Cardinals/Houston Astros Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:10 PM CT on MLB.TV

After 12 and 13 runs in the other games of this series, it’s becoming obvious that Houston’s pitching problems are going to send their games over a lot of totals. The Astros are probably the most injury-plagued pitching staff in baseball, and the arms replacing their starters are some real bottom-of-the-barrel options. That’s sent their staff ERA into dead last in MLB, while their opponent today sits at 28th.

The Cardinals can’t pitch much either, and have Matthew Liberatore going again today after consecutive troubling starts. Houston should jump all over him, as offense has not been an issue with the team that’s top 2 or 3 in just about every hitting metric. St Louis can get going at the plate too though, especially taking advantage of bad pitching, and I think it all adds up to clearing what is a fairly low total here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 12-20 (-3.30 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.