Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/19

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Luka Doncic Over 28.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:30 PM CT on ABC

The memories of last year’s Western Conference Finals still haunt me. The Wolves had no answer for Luka in that series, so why should we expect any different this year? I’m very scared of what he’ll do to this team, but I might as well profit from it. I can see a game plan in this series where the Wolves just have to let Luka get his, focus on shutting down the rest of the Lakers, and win shootouts against their traffic cone defense. Let’s hope that’s the case, but regardless I see Luka starting his playoff career in LA with a bang.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks/Indiana Pacers Over 224 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 12:00 PM CT on ESPN

This total is starting to creep up in several places, so be sure to shop around for the best number. I’m surprised it was ever this low to begin with, as the posted totals in the regular season series averaged 234.5 points and went 3-1 to the over.

The playoff stakes are holding the number down here, but these Game 1’s are never as serious when it comes to defensive effort, and I see this game being a layup line for both teams. Indiana should drive that style at home, as they want to get to the rim as well as allow the other team to do so. Milwaukee should have no problem with that approach as Giannis will thrive, so look for this opening game to be up-tempo and high scoring.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 31.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

As I mentioned, Giannis should have a big day in the style of game Indiana prefers, and the Pacers have rarely had an answer for the Greek Freak. He averaged 30.0 PPG against the Pacers in the season series, but all of those meetings were before Damian Lillard went out. Giannis is forced to carry more of the offensive load now, and I think that boosts him over this prop today.

NBA (0.75 Unit) LA Clippers First Quarter Team Total Over 26.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN

Here’s a scary thought for Nuggets fans: Denver went 2-2 this season against the Clippers, and never saw Kawhi Leonard. The LA star is back now, and this offense has been a rocket ship with him in the mix, which is bad news for the poor defense of Denver. I can’t stress enough how poor that defense is to start home games, as the Nuggets are dead last in first quarter points allowed at home with 30.4 on average. Don’t overthink this, the Clippers are a scary team that should get out to a great start today.

MLB (0.75 Unit) LA Dodgers/Texas Rangers First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-115; Odds via Fanduel): 3:05 PM CT on FOX

Yesterday’s 3-0 snoozer between these teams should be easy to replicate today. So I’m going right back to the well with the first five innings under, as there’s maybe an even better pitching matchup here. Roki Sasaki has been getting better and better as he acclimates to MLB, only allowing 2 runs in his past two starts against a couple excellent offenses.

The Rangers are not an excellent offense, too injury-plagued and unable to come up with clutch hits, so expect the rookie phenom to have another dominant start. But Texas has their own excellent starter going in Nathan Eovaldi, and he’s done very well in his career against the scary bats for LA. The scariest of those bats won’t be an issue either as Shohei Ohtani is out on paternity leave, so look for another quiet start to this game.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Garrett Crochet Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+135; Odds via DraftKings): 3:10 PM CT on CHSN

Interesting scheduling quirk here as Crochet faces his former team two starts in a row. Gee, I wonder how and why that happened. This was set up well in advance for the big lefty to make statements against his former club, once in Chicago and now in front of the home crowd. Crochet pitched into the eighth inning against the White Sox on Sunday, easily clearing this total, and I’m very sure he will want to pitch as deep as possible again today. This level of juice is wild given the situational spot against a team that can’t hit, so look for Crochet to cash it with ease.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 6-12 (-4.0 Units) – Recommend: Be Very Careful

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.