Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/18

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Nikola Jokic Over 52.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:30 PM CT on Prime Video

I feel terrible saying it, but I don’t think this is going to go well for the Wolves today, especially with plenty of signs that Anthony Edwards is not at full strength. The best player in the world is at full strength though, and Jokic has been dominating Minnesota for a while now. The strategy of throwing a ton of size at The Joker has stopped working, and he padded the box score in the regular season meetings with an average of 62.0 on this prop, going 3-1 over today’s total in the process. I just don’t think the Wolves can slow him down in all categories, as his ability to contribute in so many ways for one of the most hyper-efficient offenses of all time should allow him to stuff the stat sheet again today.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Tim Hardaway Jr Over 11.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:30 PM CT on Prime Video

This number is a little deflated on the theory that rotations shorten in the playoffs and starters hog all the minutes. First of all, I don’t think the Nuggets have that luxury as much as other teams since they play at altitude, and secondly, Hardaway is the sixth man and gets a lot of work, even with Denver getting healthier. He’s also a wolf killer, having big games in all four meetings this season where he went 4-0 over this total with 19.8 PPG on average, so I like him to put up plenty more today.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Tim Hardaway Jr Alternate Over 14.5 Points (+220; Odds via Fanduel)

With an average of 19.8 points and also a 4-0 record over this alternate total, you already know I’m in on this juicy return, enough said.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Houston Rockets -2.5 First Half @ LA Lakers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ABC

These teams met three times on the season, with the Lakers actually winning two of them. For the purposes of this bet, the Rockets did lead at halftime in two of those games by margins of 6 and 10 points. And in all three of those meetings the Lakers were at full strength, and got big nights out of Luka Doncic as he averaged 33.7 PPG against Houston this season. I just can’t see it going well for LA with the aging LeBron James and a handful of role players, so I think the Rockets jump on them early. I also don’t want anything to do with Houston’s complete lack of clutch ability, so I’ll get this over with at halftime with a team that was 5th in average first half margin this season.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Taj Bradley Under 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+115; Odds via Fanduel): 1:10 PM CT on MNNT

It’s too cold at Target Field today for runs, especially with a Reds team in town that isn’t exactly swinging hot bats to begin with. Cincinnati is 26th in first five innings scoring, so they’re not getting to starting pitchers in general, much less one that’s dealing like Bradley is right now. The surprising start to the season has seen Bradley go 4-0 against this total as teams just can’t string hits together against him. Importantly, all four of his opponents have had similar early-game struggles as Cincy. So he’s right in his wheelhouse against the Reds, and this juicy return is much more attractive than the Cincinnati F5 team total that’s 1.5 as well.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Sandy Alcantara Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+110; Odds via Fanduel): 3:10 PM CT on MLB.TV

Sandy got rocked in his last start, giving up 7 runs at Detroit in a game that simply got away from him. That doesn’t change anything about my approach to this bet, and maybe even strengthens my thinking that the Marlins have full trust to let him pitch as long as he wants. Sandy still got through 6 innings in that game, tossing 100 pitches in the process, so his leash is about as long as it gets right now. And coming back home where he was dominant for three starts to begin the year should be a boost. I’m convinced that we’re seeing the old Sandy with a ton of faith from the organization behind him, and that means another deep start here to cash this juicy return.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115; Odds via Fanduel): 8:38 PM CT on MLB.TV

It’s been a slow start to the season for Machado, scuffling along with a paltry .210 average and just a pair of homers so far. But there are signs that tonight should be a good spot to buy low and take advantage of this juicy return. Where Machado isn’t struggling is against lefties, batting .300 compared to .192 against righties, and the lefty he’ll see tonight should be a welcome sight. Yusei Kikuchi has faced him 10 times and given up 4 hits, 2 of which went over the fence. Add in a terrible Angels bullpen in what should be a high-scoring game with lots of at-bats, and I like Machado at this price to get at least a couple bases tonight.

Degenerates

NBA Minnesota Timberwolves/Denver Nuggets First Quarter Over 56.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:30 PM CT on Prime Video

The Nuggets love nothing more than starting fast at home, and a Wolves team that tends to get into higher-scoring games on the road should probably fall into the Denver trap. The Nuggets want to run early and tire out opponents that aren't used to the elevation, and that's led to some very high-scoring opening quarters for the team that averages 31.3 points in home first quarters. But that style also allows visitors to average 28.3, making this total that's adjusted for playoff basketball a little too low. These teams averaged 59.5 first quarter points in the regular season meetings, going 3-1 over this number, and I think it's worth a sprinkle that they'll do it again.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-14 (-0.60 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.