Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Miami Heat/Atlanta Hawks Over 220 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on TNT
I’m not over the Heat’s game on Wednesday getting to 118 points before halftime and then only getting 81 in the second half to fall under. And I’m not taking it well because I’m firing again on this total. I just see Chicago’s offensive performance in that game as an anomaly, and believe the Hawks, who play at just about the same exact tempo, will have more success. These teams averaged 222.0 points per game against each other this season even with a 98-86 clunker mixed in, and I think this one finds its way over the total.
NBA (0.5 Unit) PJ Washington Over 22.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN
Unlike their first play-in game, Dallas is up against a team with an elite defender that can be matched up on Anthony Davis. I’m expecting Jaren Jackson Jr to be on the Mavs star all night, leaving opportunity for PJ Washington to produce instead. Washington’s average on the season was just 21.5 on this prop, so books seem to be expecting the same thing to play out here. Washington went over this number in both games he played in against the Grizzlies this season, and I think the added opportunity gets him there again.
MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Dodgers/Texas Rangers First 5 Innings Under 4 (+100; Odds via BetMGM): 7:05 PM CT on SportsNet LA
The pitching matchup is just too good in this one, and I see it holding runs to a minimum early on. Old reliable Jacob deGrom goes for Texas, and even at an advanced age with all his injuries, he’s still an elite pitcher who should step up in a big game. He has solid numbers against the Dodgers lineup, including a lot of experience holding Freddie Freeman in check.
On the other side is Yoshi Yamamoto who has been nearly untouchable this season, having only allowed 3 earned runs total in his 4 starts against some very good offensive teams. He should hold down a Rangers lineup that’s injury-plagued and really struggling, which I see as creating a very low-scoring start tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 4-14 (-6.6 Units) – Recommend: Get Out, Get Out Now
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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