Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/17

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Charlotte Hornets Team Total Over 110.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on Prime Video

Last chance to fade this Magic team that I’m fully convinced can’t defend like their reputation suggests. They were able to slow down this Hornets team once on the season, holding them to 107 the day before Halloween. That’s a lifetime ago for so many reasons, but particularly for Charlotte who didn’t really hit their stride offensively until well into the season, putting up 120, 124, and 130 points in their other meetings with Orlando.

The key here is going to be LaMelo Ball not acting like an arsonist, and he has shot it better from 3 against Orlando than the ridiculous 2-for-16 night on Tuesday. If he doesn’t waste possessions like that, this highly efficient Hornets offense will be able to replicate their season-long success and put up a big number on the Magic tonight.

NBA (0.5 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+170; Odds via Caesars)

Charlotte Hornets (-165) @ Orlando Magic: 6:30 PM CT on Prime Video

I said last chance, so I’m making the most of it. This parlay features two legs with very similar handicaps on motivation and regression, starting with this Orlando team that I’m fully convinced doesn’t want to be here. Cancun is just waiting for this roster that has given up on their coach, while on the other side is a Hornets squad full of young talent that wants to make waves as the up-and-coming team. And as I mentioned above, LaMelo’s shooting won’t be as bad as it was Tuesday night, allowing the Hornets to build a more stable lead and pull away for the win.

Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns (-145): 9:00 PM CT on Prime Video

Once again, this leg is going to be determined on motivation and regression. That was a cute little win by the Warriors on Wednesday, but it’s not happening again as this is a terrible matchup for them. Golden State only snatched that win from the jaws of defeat by having a ridiculous 4th quarter from deep, which isn’t surprising against a Clippers team that was 22nd in three-point defense this season.

Good luck replicating it against a Phoenix squad that is 2nd in the league for three-point percentage allowed, so I don’t see any 7-for-10 quarters for Golden State here. I’m also convinced that the front office wants nothing to do with winning this game, as their reward is getting stomped by OKC in the first round. Take the loss after a fun Wednesday win and get into the lottery, which is something that doesn’t apply to a Suns team with no draft picks, so Phoenix should be the more motivated team to move on here.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Braves Team Total Over 4.5 (-115; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on MLB.TV

This one should be pretty simple, as it’s a matchup of the team that has scored the 2nd-most runs in the league so far, against the pitching staff that has allowed the 5th-most runs. When you break it down further it’s an Atlanta team that is crushing righties, ranking top-5 in all advanced metrics, against Taijuan Walker who’s one of the more reliable gas cans in the league.

Behind Walker is an exhausted bullpen that just spent the week getting knocked around by the Cubs, who put up an incredible 28 runs in 3 games. So that means either Walker’s awfulness is exposed for a longer outing by necessity, or the lesser bullpen arms get more work, but either way I see it leading to plenty of runs for this hot-hitting Braves squad.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 Total Bases (+110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:40 PM CT on MLB.TV

It’s only mid-April, but we’ve already reached the point of the season where Shohei has a total bases prop that should be an alt line, but it’s the standard line. Over 2.5 typically carries a very hefty plus-juice return for anyone who’s human, but Ohtani might be an alien and this might be one of his favorite matchups, so I’m ok with this return. He’s faced Rockies starter Tomoyuki Sugano twice, and he’s hit two solo home runs, so things could get out of hand here. It’s not ideal hitting conditions in Coors today, but Ohtani is too much of a machine and always makes a mockery of Colorado pitching, so I’m in on this crazy number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-14 (+1.03 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.