Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/16

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Orioles/Cleveland Guardians First 5 Innings Under 4 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:10 PM CT on CLEG

I’m looking at two specific angles for this game, and both are telling me to expect a slow start from both offenses. First is Guardians starter Parker Messick, who has been unreal to start the season. Through three starts against three of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, his 0.51 ERA and 0.91 WHIP are really incredible. Things won’t be easy today against a Baltimore team that hits lefties well, but Messick has faced tougher tests and I think the rookie can shine again tonight.

I think his team will need it too, because they’re in a classic Malinsky Special spot having just played on the road yesterday and turning right around for a home game here. That typically stifles the bats, especially for a team like Cleveland that isn’t hitting well. The Guardians are bottom-third at best against righties like they’ll see here in Shane Baz, so I think those two important factors create a low-scoring start here.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Colorado Rockies/Houston Astros Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on COLR

Things have really gotten bad for the Houston pitching staff, which was already this team’s problem in their crash from a hot start. Now they have injury issues up and down the rotation, forcing what appears to be a bullpen game today. That’s more bad news for the Astros as their pen is 29th in ERA this season and has already been knocked around by this spunky Colorado lineup.

The Rockies truly can hit, so I think they can put up runs here against bad pitching, but it looks like they’ll counter with a bullpen game of their own. That bullpen has benefited from a lot of luck so far this season and their expected metrics say they’re due for regression. That can easily show up here against the league’s second-best offense, so I’m seeing the makings of a slugfest in this one.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120; Odds via Fanduel): 7:40 PM CT on MLB Network

Regression has hit hard for Raleigh this season, proving to some extent that last year was very fluky. I can’t imagine seeing a total bases prop for him lined or juiced like this last season, especially in such a favorable matchup. But that creates some value to buy low, and I want to do that with him facing Walker Buehler tonight. The Big Dumper is 5-for-6 lifetime against Buehler with two doubles and a home run, so this might be exactly what he needs to snap out of the slump, and I’ll be there to collect this juicy return if that plays out.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 14-14 (+1.18 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.