Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/16

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Miami Heat/Chicago Bulls Over 219 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

This total has come down on the expectation of more defense in a postseason scenario. But an expectation of defense and the Chicago Bulls just don’t mix, as this team authored some truly eye-popping defensive lapses throughout the season. But they can score on anyone, especially at their pace that’s second-fastest in the league, and the famous Miami playoff defense is not what it once was now that Jimmy Butler is gone. This should be a game with plenty of three’s, Chicago driving tempo on their own floor, and more offense than anything else to get it over the total.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Anthony Davis Over 37.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

I was as shocked as anyone to see AD close the season with a triple-double last week, but that just shows what he’s still capable of against a weak frontcourt. That’s what the Kings are in the paint, with very little defensive ability and not much in the way of toughness either. So this total being significantly higher than Davis’ average with Dallas of about 20 and 10 says a lot about Sacramento’s ability to contain him. I don’t think the Kings will contain him at all, especially with him being Dallas’ focal point, so look for a big night in both the scoring and rebounding columns.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Brent Rooker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130; Odds via DraftKings): 6:40 PM CT on NBCS-CA

This is a great time to be betting on Rooker’s bases prop, as the slump he’s been in for most of April is creating highly advantageous juice. But as he showed last night, there’s no better way to get back on track than to face White Sox pitching, and I’m going back to the same well with him tonight. Rooker is 2-for-3 lifetime against Chicago starter Jonathan Cannon, and a weak bullpen will give him plenty of opportunity throughout the game to cash this juicy return.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Colorado Rockies/LA Dodgers Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:10 PM CT on COLR

A lot of times in a game like this you’re asking the Dodgers to do the vast majority of the work to reach this total. And that’s certainly possible again as they’re massive favorites, facing a starter in German Marquez that they’ve punished over the years, and a bullpen that’s given up the 4th-most runs in the league so far.

But don’t sleep on Colorado adding a surprising number of runs themselves in this one, as they face one of the worst options LA can send to the mound. Bobby Miller is back up from the minors due to a lack of options, and was throwing batting practice all of last season. Until he proves otherwise I’ll be fading him this season, and the bullpen behind him is nothing special either, so I expect plenty of runs in this one.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 5-11 (-4.15 Units) – Recommend: Do The Opposite

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.