Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/15

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Hawks +5.5 @ Orlando Magic (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

These teams went 2-2 against each other this season both straight up and ATS, along with going 1-1 both straight up and ATS in each other’s respective buildings. So this is a division rivalry that produces a tight matchup as Atlanta ended up with a +1.2 average margin in the season series, and I think it goes down to the wire tonight.

So getting this many points with the Hawks, who have the much more potent offense, is the best way to go in my opinion. Let’s remember that Orlando benefited from an insanely hot start to the season and still only made the play-in, even in a weak Eastern Conference. I don’t have a ton of faith in the Magic as a sizable favorite in what should be a hard-fought game, so I’ll take the points here.

Bonus Prop Pick (0.5 Unit): Paolo Banchero Over 30.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

The scary part about backing Atlanta in this game is that they have proven they don’t have an answer for Banchero. The Magic star has gone for an average of 33.3 points in the three games he played against the Hawks this season, clearing this total every time. He really is the Magic offense at this point with their backcourt injuries, and unless Atlanta has some secret weapon for tonight he should go off again.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Ja Morant Over 2.5 Made Three’s (+130; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

It’s a standalone playoff game for Ja Morant, so you know he’ll be tossing grenades, or firing rocket launchers, or whatever makes Adam Silver squirm. That should mean a high volume of three-point attempts for a player who has had at least 6 attempts from deep in 11 of his past 15 games. And he’s been red hot this month, shooting 41.3% from long range the past 5 games including 5-of-8 in the last meeting with the Warriors. So this plus-juice return given the volume and situation is something I have to go after.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Brent Rooker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:40 PM CT on NBCS-CA

Making money off Brent Rooker’s bat is always bittersweet knowing he could still be a Twin if they knew what they were doing. Oh well, I’ll just have to keep repressing that memory and appreciate another plus-money return on him getting two or more bags tonight.

I’m tempted to sprinkle his home run prop at +335 since he hasn’t gone yard in 7 games, the wind is blowing hard out to dead center tonight, and he’s 1-for-3 lifetime against Chicago starter Sean Burke with a homer. But those conditions also set up nicely for this more conservative route, and I’ll be happy with any of the many ways he can get to this prop total tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Fernando Tatis Jr Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 8:40 PM CT on SDPA

Tatis is on an incredible hot streak right now, and you just have to try to capitalize on it even with this lesser juice. He’s just too locked in at home so far this season, posting a .395 average and 1.216 OPS with 5 home runs at Petco. Usually I would worry about the lefty-versus-lefty matchup tonight with Cubs starter Shota Imanaga, but Tatis is 2-for-5 lifetime against the Chicago ace. With how he’s hitting right now I just have to keep going after this bases prop while it’s still in plus-juice territory.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 4-10 (-4.25 Units) – Recommend: Run For The Hills

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.