Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/14

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Miami Heat/Charlotte Hornets Over 228.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on Prime Video

The NBA Play-In tournament isn’t typically where you want to go looking for over bets, but I have to here. It’s a matter of style, as the Heat simply can’t get away from their league-leading pace, and their defensive issues down the stretch are really concerning. It’s possible Erik Spoelstra has some postseason magic up his sleeve we’re not expecting, but these teams have consistently shown that they combine for lots of points.

The regular season meetings went 4-0 over this total very comfortably, averaging 246.3 PPG in the process. Most importantly I think are the last two meetings, which happened in March as opposed to the first two which came well before Thanksgiving. Those final two games were a true representation of this Hornets squad compared to their early season struggles, and they put up 120 and 136 points. Now that this offense has become highly efficient, the pace that Miami plays at creates more and more possessions that should inevitably lead to plenty of points tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Bam Adebayo Over 20.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

As good as the Hornets can be defensively, their interior defense has always been a little lacking. Adebayo knows full well how to exploit that, with outings of 24 and 26 points against Charlotte this season. And it seems to be an issue with specifically slowing down Bam, as Kel’el Ware did nothing in his place during the two games Adebayo missed, so I like him to have another strong night here.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Oso Ighodaro Over 9.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on Prime Video

This is a strangely low number, I’m pretty surprised. I know it’s the postseason now where rotations shorten and backups get less work, but this is more of a unique situation. There’s been a heavy timeshare at the center spot for Phoenix all season, with Ighodaro logging plenty of minutes even when Mark Williams is healthy.

With Williams still ramping up from his return after injury kept him out a month, I would think that Ighodaro is an exception to the rule of backups not getting enough work. Plus, they’d be smart to have him get minutes against Portland, as three meetings have seen him average 12.3 points+rebounds against them this season. It’s not as if we’re asking for 10 points or rebounds, just a combination of them which feels too low here and I think the opportunity exists to get over.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Pittsburgh Pirates Alt Team Total Over 5.5 (+115; Odds via Fanduel): 5:40 PM CT on MLB.TV

The Pirates scored 16 runs in one game last night, which any casual baseball observer can tell you is about as rare as it gets with where this team has been the past few years. They’re probably not scoring at that level again tonight, but tonight they have arguably the best opportunity to exploit bad pitching that exists in baseball right now.

Miles Mikolas takes the mound again for Washington, and he’s done nothing but cause them problems so far. He was rocked in both of his first two starts, then limited to just 3 innings in his third start so he couldn’t blow up again.

The Pirates should jump all over Mikolas early as they have good cumulative numbers against him, and he won’t be able to have such a short start with the bullpen getting used up last night. It’s the worst bullpen in the league so there will be chances to add more runs later in the game, which is why Nats opponents are 10-6 over this total on the year, and I think another is coming here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-13 (+4.25 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.