Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/13

Locks

MLB (0.25 Unit) Minnesota Twins First Five Innings Team Total Over 1.5 (+120; Odds via Caesars): 6:40 PM CT on NESN

The Twins take on one of the tougher starting pitchers in all of baseball when Garrett Crochet visits Target Field tonight, but I’m still feeling bullish. Somehow this Twins lineup is rolling, so much so that they lead baseball in scoring against lefthanded pitching. They’ve seen a lot of lefties so far to boost that production, but their weighted numbers are pretty solid as well.

I’m also looking at this from an ROI standpoint, as Crochet has an earned runs prop of 1.5 at standard juice, but this team total has a healthy return on it. The Boston lefty hasn’t gone particularly deep into any start this season, so it’s good value in my opinion to take a shot here with the team that’s third in F5 scoring so far this season.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Cristopher Sanchez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 5:40 PM CT on FS1

My opinion on Sanchez is that last year was no fluke, and he’s a legit number one starter that’s also a strong strikeout pitcher. But this strikeout prop tonight is a little light, and probably lined this way due to his past two starts finishing with 6 and 7 K’s. Those games came against Nationals and Giants teams that are tougher for lefties to punch out, as they rank 20th and 19th, respectively, in strikeout rate.

Sanchez has also faced the most strikeout-prone lineup in baseball against lefthanded pitching, when he started the year with 10 K’s against Texas. This Cubs team isn’t at that level, but considerably worse than Sanchez’s other two opponents with the 7th-highest K rate, so I don’t see this number being enough and I’m in on the over here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Angels First Five Innings +0.5 @ NY Yankees (+100; Odds via DraftKings): 6:05 PM CT on YES

I’m surprised the Yankees are such big favorites tonight, but that’s the brand name bias for you. This squad is mired in a pretty bad hitting slump, and their numbers against lefthanded pitching are shocking. New York is dead last in basically every offensive metric, both standard and advanced, against lefties which they’ll see tonight.

Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi never really inspires a ton of excitement to back him, but against this struggling team it’s a must-do. The Yankees don’t have a very good cumulative history against Kikuchi either, especially not Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton, so I see quiet bats from them to start this game. And if this Angels lineup that is really feisty to start the season can manage just one run in the early going, I’m confident they’ll either have the lead or be tied after 5 innings.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Zach Neto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125; Odds via DraftKings)

I love getting a juicy number like this for the leadoff man, who’s guaranteed to get the most chances at the plate, especially on the road. Neto started out the season a little cold, but has gotten going in April with 2.3 bases per game this month and has a good matchup here. Not many Angels have experience against Yankees starter Will Warren, but Neto has seen him 6 times and racked up 3 hits including a homer and double, so this price is definitely worth jumping in on.

MLB (1 Unit) Texas Rangers/Athletics Over 9 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on NBCS-CA

The weather conditions aren’t what they will be later this summer in Sacramento, but this is still far too low of a total for that little stadium. This is also a bit of a buy-low opportunity on these offenses, who have promise but aren’t living up to their potential yet. With the right pitching matchup in a Triple-A stadium though, that has the potential to change in a hurry and I think it does tonight.

It’s a small sample size of just three games, but the Athletics home games have all hit double digit runs, and them returning home here should boost their offense. They have good numbers against Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi who has struggled on the road so far this year. And the A’s set it up well for Luis Severino to avoid pitching at home for a while, but it was inevitable that he’d get a start where his ERA last year was double that of his road games. The Rangers also hit him pretty well, so look for this game to feature plenty of offense.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-16 (+1.01 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.