Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/12

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Brooklyn Nets First Half Team Total Under 50.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on SportsNet

Toronto desperately needs this game to avoid the play-in, and I think that creates a solid angle on this first half play. The result of this game is not in doubt, the Raptors will win it, but the must-win nature of it should raise the urgency coming out of the gates. Toronto is a top-5 defense, especially when it wants to be, and definitely have the ability to grind down a shorthanded Nets team.

In the three meetings this season, Brooklyn scored a lot more than their team totals would suggest today, but Michael Porter Jr, Nic Claxton, and Noah Clowney were all fully healthy. With none of them out there today, Toronto gets to face a shell of a basketball team whose scoring has cratered since MPJ went out, and will fall short again here.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks @ Philadelphia 76ers -9.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:00 PM CT on NBCS-PH

Actual Bucks fans are going to struggle to name their players suiting up for this game, as Milwaukee has shut everyone meaningful down for tonight. That’s going to make it tough to go to Philly and take on a team who’s actually playing for something, as the Sixers would love to avoid the play-in. Unfortunately for them, it’s not going to happen as Toronto beating the lowly Nets will lock Philadelphia into the 7 seed at best.

But the Sixers won’t know that for sure until well into the game, so they’ll be incentivized to try for the first half, and it doesn’t go well early for the Bucks when they’re visiting a team that tries. Milwaukee’s past 7 games against non-tanking teams have seen the Bucks fall behind at halftime by at least double digits, with an 18.3 point deficit on average. Until they know there’s no hope, expect a Sixers squad that’s starting everyone available to roll early tonight.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Denver Nuggets/San Antonio Spurs First Half Over 112.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN

Injury news has caused the total in this game to plummet, along with the first half total that has moved to the less-than-50% concept I like to target in these situations. With Jamal Murray out today, and Nikola Jokic questionable, it’s easy to see why there’s an expectation of fewer points, but books might be neglecting one key issue.

That is Victor Wembanyama, who needs 20 minutes in this game to reach the threshold for awards eligibility, and should get those early before resting late. His presence will really drive scoring, especially against a Denver team that is not defending well at all. The pace should be high in this game, with a lot of three’s attempted by both teams, and the Spurs playing hard behind their superstar should drive early scoring up tonight.

MLB (1 Unit) Jose Soriano Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 12:40 PM CT on MLB.TV

This is completely wrong, nothing about this total being so low makes any sense. If books don’t see what’s going on with Jose Soriano right now that’s their fault, and I’m happy to capitalize on it. Soriano has LA’s full confidence right now, and he’s earned it with three elite starts to open the season against some solid offenses.

Those offenses are much better against righthanded pitching than Cincinnati is, and Soriano went a minimum of 6 innings in each game. The Reds check in with a bottom-5 ranking in average, OPS, wOBA, and weighted scoring metrics against righties, so I think Soriano can handle a lengthier appearance today.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Jose Soriano Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105; Odds via DraftKings)

Hopefully that lengthy start gets Soriano plenty of time to rack up more strikeouts. His stuff is nasty, and he’s gone over this number in 2 of his 3 starts so far. But what’s important is who those games were against, as the Braves, Cubs, and Astros strike out at far lower rates than this Reds team. With a plus-juice price attached, I think this extra prop is worth a shot as well.

MLB (1 Unit) Sandy Alcantara Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 12:40 PM CT on MLB.TV

This is an epic pitcher’s duel waiting to happen, with Tarik Skubal going for Detroit today. But the totals in this game are too deflated, so I have to look to the prop market at something Alcantara has been very good with so far. I wouldn’t have expected him to be pitching as deep into games as he has this early in the season, but he has the full trust of the Marlins and has been excellent.

Sandy went 24 consecutive innings to start the year before giving up a run, and he can keep dominating today against a weak-hitting Detroit lineup. The Tigers with experience against Sandy haven’t enjoyed that experience, and this is a Tigers team that’s below average against righties in general much less an elite starter. I think the pitcher’s duel potential also gives him justification to stay in the game longer, so look for an easy over on this prop today.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-14 (+1.18 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.