Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/12

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Detroit Tigers Team Total Over 4.5 (+105; Odds via Caesars): 1:10 PM CT on MNNT

It’s just disappointment after disappointment with this Twins team, going all the way back to the finish of last season. I don’t see an end to it today as one of the biggest disappointments on the team takes the mound. Chris Paddack has been downright awful in allowing 13 runs over his two starts, and a Tigers team that’s hitting righties very well to start the season should put up some runs against him right away. Then they’ll face the disappointment that is the Minnesota bullpen, which put in a good amount of work in last night’s loss, so look for Detroit to get over this total regardless of how the game plays out.

MLB (0.75 Unit) NY Mets/Athletics Over 9 (-125; Odds via Caesars): 3:05 PM CT on NBCS-CA

These Athletics home games are starting to get a little ridiculous, like Coors Field ridiculous, and I don’t see an end to the scoring today. Not with a stacked lineup for the Mets in town, who showed last night they have no trouble pounding a decent A’s starter. That 13-run game sent the record in Sacramento to 5-1-1 over this total with 11.9 runs on average, and today the A’s send a minor leaguer in JT Ginn to the mound. The Mets should take full advantage of that and the weak bullpen, but their own starter Drew Peterson has had a lot of trouble with allowing baserunners. So don’t count out the home team on the scoreboard here, which should send this well over the total.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Chicago Cubs/LA Dodgers Over 9 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 8:10 PM CT on Marquee

These are two of the most potent offenses in all of baseball, and both teams sending out starters with plenty of issues should mean lots of runs. The Cubs are first and the Dodgers fifth in scoring so far, plus they’re first and fourth, respectively, in weighted runs created so they can score against anyone. And these teams have already had a look at the opposing starter from their series in Japan, so Ben Brown and Roki Sasaki will be at a disadvantage tonight. Both offenses are also crushing righthanded pitching in general, so two righties with a lot of question marks plus bullpens I’m not sold on should allow plenty of runs tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 8-17 (-3.25 Units) – Recommend: Fade Hard

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.