Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/11

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Twins/Toronto Blue Jays Over 8 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:07 PM CT on SNET

Two things involving these teams are not going to last. First, the kind of offense and pitching that lead to the Twins sweeping Detroit is one of the bigger outliers so far in this young baseball season. That already started to materialize last night when the Blue Jays pounded them 10-4, which brings me to my second point.

Toronto breaking through was inevitable, as this lineup is too stacked to stay stuck in the mud for long, and last night might be a sign of things to come. I think they can build on that game today, as they have good numbers against Joe Ryan and a tired Twins bullpen isn’t going to slow them down much either. But the Twins bats have great cumulative numbers against Jays starter Eric Lauer, so if they can squeeze out a little more surprising offense today, this game will clear the lower total.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Kodai Senga Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 3:10 PM CT on NBCS-CA

Yep, I’m still targeting the Athletics anytime they take the field against a righthanded starter like this. The A’s have actually cut down their K-rate against righties slightly, although it’s still bad, and that tends to happen when you go a couple of games without facing a strikeout pitcher. That changes today with Senga, who has been really good at getting swings and misses through two starts.

Notably, those starts came against the Giants and Cardinals, who he rang up 7 and 9 times, respectively. The Giants rank 17th and the Cardinals are 16th in K-rate against righties, so to log that many is impressive. Against this whiff-heavy Athletics lineup, I think Senga gets to this number pretty easily today.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Texas Rangers Team Total Over 3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:10 PM CT on SportsNet LA

The Dodgers being heavy favorites in this game creates an opportunity to grab a low number on the opposing team total, and I’m jumping in. This Texas lineup is too good to just be tied for 19th in runs scored so far this season, and a breakout has to be coming. It might have started last night with 7 runs and 3 homers against the Dodgers, who had a high level starting pitcher going. That’s not the case tonight with Emmet Sheehan, who is a back-end starter for a reason.

Sheehan’s two starts so far this season have been problematic not just because he gave up 4 runs in both of them, but because they came against some questionable competition. The Rangers are not elite against righties by any means, but that hasn’t mattered for Sheehan so far and I’m going to treat him as a gas can until further notice. And when you add in the below-average Dodgers bullpen that’s plagued them for years, I think the Rangers can put plenty on the board again tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-14 (+4.06 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.