Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/11

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Charlotte Hornets @ Boston Celtics -12 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on NBCS-Boston

I get the sense that Boston will want to bounce back from scoring just 76 points in a 20-point loss at Orlando on Wednesday night. Of course it was self-inflicted as the Celtics rested everyone, but still, nobody bounces back quite like this team as they’re 18-2 off a loss with a plus-18.8 average margin of victory.

That’s especially true when they feel like running out an overmatched opponent, and the Hornets are overmatched against just about everyone right now. Lonzo Ball is done for the year and Miles Bridges won’t play tonight, so the league’s worst first half margin team has basically nobody you’ve heard of in their starting five. Boston gets everyone but Jaylen Brown back tonight, and should be shredding this awful, tanking Hornets squad by halftime.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/Denver Nuggets First Half Over 117.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude

The Nuggets and Grizzlies have met twice this season, with both meetings ending up relatively low-scoring thanks to Ja Morant and Nikola Jokic missing both games. That won’t be the case here, so both squads will have most of their firepower available which should turn this game into a shootout. Neither team is playing much defense these days, as their surprising coaching changes haven’t gotten anyone interested in the defensive end of the floor.

These teams are towards the bottom of the league in first half points allowed, as well as towards the top in first half scoring, plus Memphis was just in a track meet last night against the Wolves. Traveling to altitude will not do anything positive for defensive effort out of the Grizzlies, and two excellent three-point shooting teams should really fill it up in this one. I’m shocked to see the full-game total steaming quickly into the low-240’s while this first half number stays so far below 120, so I love the potential for early points here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+140; Odds via Caesars)

Boston Red Sox (-160) @ Chicago White Sox: 6:40 PM CT on NESN

Remember when the White Sox were playing .500 baseball at 2-2, proving everyone wrong that they’d be the worst team in major league baseball history? Well, they haven’t won since, and I don’t think they break the losing streak here. Not with the low-level starter they’re sending out in Davis Martin, who has to face a Boston lineup that has shown a ton of pop. The Red Sox aren’t exactly sending out an ace, but Sean Newcomb should be able to hold down the weakest lineup in baseball that has already experienced plenty of injuries. This battle of the sock drawer should not be fair, and I see the red ones winning out.

Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres (-210): 8:40 PM CT on SDPA

The Padres, not the Dodgers, own the best record in the majors, and I don’t see them dropping their first home game in this matchup. The Rockies are exactly what they were expected to be, and even though their best starter is going tonight it’s not a good matchup for him. German Marquez has not fared well against the Padres, allowing a .351 batting average and 1.053 OPS to their roster, so expect the San Diego bats to stay hot. And Padres starter Nick Pivetta was an underrated signing this offseason, plus he’s notorious for being far better in home games, so this is a good way to back the Padres without truly taking on all that juice they’re laying.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 10-14 (-3.25 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.