Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/10

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Miami Heat First Half Team Total Over 69.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on MNMT

But just yesterday you bet on Miami to go under their team total! I know, but hear me out. That was the Raptors, a desperate team with a good defense that has the Heat’s number. This is the Wizards, and I don’t know that I need to explain them any further. All Miami does is crush this team, including last Saturday when they racked up 77 points before halftime.

Add that to the 74 and 76 they’ve hung on Washington in the other meetings this season, and it’s obvious that the Heat love running it up early and often against this pitiful squad. With Miami fresh off two frustrating losses where their offense was stuck in neutral, look for them to hit the gas right away and take out those frustrations on the worst defense in the league.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Miami Heat -10.5 First Half @ Washington Wizards (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

When you’re scoring in the 70’s before halftime, it’s pretty easy to cover large first half spreads. That’s again been the case in all three meetings between these teams, with the Heat posting halftime leads of 20, 14, and 22 points. This Wizards team is not just bad because they can’t defend, but because they’re starting players you’d have to google, and they just won’t be able to hang with an angry Heat squad tonight.

NBA (0.75 Unit): Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 21.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on Prime Video

It really can’t be overstated how much I miss NAW on the Wolves, from a fan level and personal level. To see him thriving now as the favorite to win Most Improved Player this season makes it hurt even more, so I’ll have to drown my sorrows in a winning wager on him here. NAW playing so well has been a massive factor in Atlanta surging in the East, and they need him to put up another strong performance tonight.

Atlanta is on the fringe of the play-in, and need a win here to stay out of it for now, so that should mean a full night’s work out of NAW. He’s had some excellent games against Cleveland this season, including Wednesday when he went for 25 points. He’s also gone for 20 or more points in 15 or his past 18 games, so in a high usage spot tonight I think he delivers another great night.

NBA (1 Unit) Dallas Mavericks/San Antonio Spurs First Half Over 121.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on KFAA

Wemby is at his limit; the superstar can’t miss any more games if he wants to qualify for season-long awards. And he has to play meaningful time in those games, meeting the 20-minute minimum by league rules.

So keep an eye on his status tonight as he’s listed as questionable, but he’s seemed pretty clear that these awards are important to him so I’d expect him to play. If he does, he’ll go off against this Mavericks team that has zero interest in defense at this point, and he’ll do it early to get his minutes before resting late.

That’s how I got to this first half play, which has some history behind it in the season series. All three meetings have seen a higher-scoring first half than second, averaging 132 first half points with eruptions of 137 and 148 in the past two since Dallas embraced the tank. The Spurs have made a habit of running it up early on tanking teams to create high-scoring first halves, and I think we see another here if their superstar is out there.

NBA (1 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/Utah Jazz Over 247.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:30 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE

Only two games left in the season for these teams, so who wants to play some defense? My guess is exactly nobody from either side has any interest in that, and we’ll see another ridiculous score as a result. These rosters have guys on 10-day contracts in the starting lineup, just an absolute embarrassment but one that can be profited from.

The past five games for these teams have seen the Grizzlies allow 133.4 points, while the Jazz have given up 138.8 points. It’s getting worse too, and putting them on the same floor should result in the kind of game you’d see at afternoon pickup ball in the Lifetime gym. Both teams should be hurrying up the floor to hoist a three against zero resistance, and in that situation I don’t care how high the total is, I want the over.

MLB (1 Unit) Milwaukee Brewers Team Total Over 4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:40 PM CT on MLB.TV

This is a great spot to get a number like this on Milwaukee, who should have no trouble scoring runs today. The Brewers are starting an excellent pitcher today in Chad Patrick, which holds the full-game total down because books aren’t expecting much production against him. But they haven’t adjusted the number or juice far enough on the Milwaukee side, and they’re facing a dumpster fire of a pitching staff.

I’m going to spend my summer looking to go against Washington’s pitching whenever and wherever I can, with Jake Irvin being one of the top targets. He’s in a tough situation today against a Brewers team that’s hitting righties very well, and has good history against him with a cumulative .351 average and 1.057 OPS. The league’s worst bullpen follows Irvin, so Milwaukee will have an excellent opportunity to extend a streak of 7 straight Nats opponents clearing this team total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-14 (+2.28 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.