Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/09

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Miami Heat Team Total Under 117.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SUN

This is kind of a ridiculous total, based solely on Miami’s tendency to not play any defense and get into shootouts. But who will be playing defense tonight is the Raptors, as they’re barely keeping themselves out of the play-in right now and a single loss might knock them into the 7 seed. So expect maximum effort tonight from a Toronto defense that’s top-5 in the league when it tries to be, and that effort has been present in this stretch run to hang on to the 6 seed.

Plus, the Raptors really have Miami figured out, holding them to double-digit points in all three meetings this season which is very impressive. Toronto seems to be the one team that can neutralize Miami’s league-leading pace, and I think they’ll do it again in this desperation spot.

NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Lakers Team Total Under 110.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on Prime Video

Let’s be real, the Warriors are not a good defensive team in their current state, especially since losing Jimmy Butler. But with the current state the Lakers find themselves in, I just don’t know how they score here or against any team that isn’t tanking. The Warriors really have nothing to play for here, as they’re essentially locked into the 10 seed, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them slow this down into an uglier game.

The Lakers meanwhile are hanging on to home court in the first round by a thread, so they do have reason to put up a fight which probably means defend harder with their roster issues. This season we’ve already seen LA fall short of this total against the Warriors with both Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves on the floor, and another time with a similar roster to what they’ll have tonight. So given their injury problems and offensive shortcomings, this team total might be a little too big for LA tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-15 (+2.63 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.