Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/08

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Orlando Magic Over 228.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

With that Rockets win over the Suns last night, it all but locks Minnesota into the 6 seed. Orlando meanwhile could still theoretically escape the play-in, so they have plenty to play for tonight. This time of year, when at least one team has nothing to play for, it’s typically a good time to look at the over in that game. Defense won’t be at the maximum for the Wolves tonight, plus their offense will likely be quicker and lead to more possessions overall.

And with the Magic bringing a full effort, the raised floor of their scoring makes it easier to reach a total in this range. Orlando has been cashing overs like crazy lately to become one of the better over bets in the league, while the road has always been a profitable spot to bet Wolves games over. With Minnesota also on no rest here where they’re 8-5 to the over this season, I like a higher-scoring game that clears this moderate total.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Michael Lorenzen Over 3.5 Earned Runs (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 2:10 PM CT on COLR

I don’t know what happened to the Houston offense yesterday as they only managed one run in ideal Coors conditions. But I’m not afraid of going back to the well and expecting plenty of offense from them in this bounce back spot. Certainly not when a pitcher like Lorenzen is taking the mound for his second start in Coors, after the first one went completely sideways with 9 earned runs on 12 hits against another high-level offense in the Phillies. The problem for Lorenzen is just giving up too much contact, and in the thin Denver air that’s a recipe for disaster. I expect plenty of runs in this game overall, but I’ll isolate Lorenzen here given his start to the season and an attractive price.

MLB (1 Unit) St Louis Cardinals Team Total Over 4.5 (+105; Odds via Caesars): 3:05 PM CT on NATS

Weather conditions aren’t ideal for scoring in DC today, but I’m betting that it doesn’t matter. Not with the pitching staff that Washington is trotting out to start this season, as the Nationals are dead last in team ERA, WHIP, home runs allowed, you name it. With Miles Mikolas taking the mound again it’s no surprise that they’d be giving up so many runs as 17 of them have come with him on the mound through two starts.

Mikolas simply isn’t a good pitcher anymore, which is why the Cardinals let him go. But even if he does manage a decent start against his former team, his relief will likely spoil it for him. The Nats are 28th in bullpen ERA, plus dead last in expected ERA, xFIP, and WAR for relievers. A Cardinals team that’s hitting surprisingly well, having cleared this total in 4 straight and 7 of 11 games this season, can jump on that bad pitching and pay off this juicy return with at least 5 runs today.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Will Warren Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:05 PM CT on Prime Video

I highlighted Yankees starter Cam Schlittler last night for his K prop and it paid off, so I’m going right back to the well that is the Athletics. Despite knocking him around a little bit, the A’s still allowed Schlittler to ring them up 7 times, actually increasing their league-worst strikeout rate against righties this season in the process. Warren doesn’t have the same stuff, but he does have a good history against the A’s bats that he’s seen in his career. He also went over this number in his last start against a much less strikeout-prone Marlins squad, so basically if the A’s are facing a serviceable righthanded starter, I’m looking at their K prop if it’s in this range.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-14 (+2.73 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.