Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/08

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Milwaukee Bucks Over 222.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

This total has come down a few points, into a range where I feel comfortable being on the over. Something like Giannis being downgraded from his probable status would obviously change things, but he appears to be good to go. So I see the Bucks offense continuing at the level it’s been playing at since figuring out how to compensate for Damian Lillard’s absence.

This is a scheduling spot that could hurt the Wolves in their defensive focus as well, with Memphis on deck Thursday in a key game for seeding. But Minnesota’s offense has been cooking and they’re due for some positive regression in three-point shooting, making a game with the league’s best three-point percentage team very likely to turn high-scoring.

NBA (0.5 Unit) San Antonio Spurs @ LA Clippers -7.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:30 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SC

Keep an eye on the status of Kawhi Leonard for this game as he’s currently questionable tonight. With him in the lineup I love the firepower this Clippers team has, especially against a weak defense like they’ll see here. The Spurs are not stopping much of anything right now, and LA just dropped 135 on a good Dallas defense over the weekend. LA has been excellent in first halves lately as well, particularly when Kawhi has been good to go. The Clippers are a scary team that’s heating up at the right time, and I think they keep rolling with an easy first half tonight if their stars are available.

MLB (1 Unit) Baltimore Orioles/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 9 (-115; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on MASN2

This pitching matchup screams runs, and with these two offenses facing poor pitching I’m shocked this isn’t a double-digit total. I’m not sure what Baltimore was expecting out of their experiment with 41-year-old Charlie Morton, but things have gone predictably poorly in his first two starts. Those were solid offenses he faced, and now he sees one in the Diamondbacks that is top-tier and due for a bounce back after just one run last night. Meanwhile, the elite Orioles offense should tee off on Merrill Kelly who showed his true self against the Yankees last week. These teams simply have too much offensive firepower to not jump all over below-average pitching, so this total should be easy to clear.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-16 (-2.9 Units) – Recommend: Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.