Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/07

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Indiana Pacers First Half Over 112.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

After 4 losses in their past 5 games, most of which have been ugly, it’s past time for the Wolves to take frustrations out on someone. Indiana can and should be that someone, as this team is missing their entire starting lineup heading into tonight and are ripe to get blown out. I think the Wolves have a great opportunity to jump all over the Pacers early, as they’ve been much better offensively early in games during this stretch without Anthony Edwards.

That’s been the same situation for Indiana, who despite tanking the season tend to put up fights in the first half of games before fading late. They’ll always be an up-tempo team regardless of what lineup is out there, and these backups have actually had some impressive moments. So with the Wolves typically getting into higher-scoring games on the road, I think a fast start by them coupled with Indiana’s early effort sends this over the first half total.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Sandy Alcantara Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+110; Odds via DraftKings): 5:40 PM CT on MLB.TV

Is it safe to say that the OG Sandy is back? Last year was rough for Alcantara as he made his way back from Tommy John surgery, there’s no sugarcoating it. But the tail end of the season showed promise and that has certainly carried over into this spring, with two dominant starts that remind us of what he used to be.

The big key seems to be the trust the organization has in him, which has resulted in starts of 7 and 9 full innings of work. So this number is more reflective of his outings last season than what appears to be his current form, and if he’s cruising again they’ll let him go back out there for the 7th inning. That’s all you need for this bet, and against a Reds team currently bottom-5 in most offensive metrics against righties, I think we see the best version of Sandy again here.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Jacob Misiorowski Alt Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+125; Odds via DraftKings): 5:45 PM CT on MLB.TV

Books do not want you betting the standard strikeout prop here, as over 6.5 is juiced to the moon. I’m fine going to the alt market though, as Misiorowski has the opportunity for a dominant outing here. The talented righty has started out the season hot, with 11 and 7 K’s during relatively short outings that give him an insane K-rate of 40%.

It’s important to also note who those games were against, as the 11 came against the White Sox who have the 4th-highest K-rate against righties, while the 7 came against Tampa who has the 2nd-lowest rate. Tonight, The Miz faces a Red Sox squad that is currently striking out at the 3rd-highest rate in baseball against righthanders, so given a decently long start I think he really racks up the punchouts.

MLB (1 Unit) Cam Schlittler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 6:05 PM CT on YES

It’s ridiculous that this total would be so low, and even more ridiculous that there’s plus juice attached to the over. Schlittler is a beast, only allowing 3 total hits in his two scoreless starts while generating a 39.5% K-rate thanks to 8 and 7 K’s in those games. He did that against a Giants team striking out at the 13th-highest rate against righties, and a Mariners squad getting punched out at the 2nd-highest rate. The only team with a higher K-rate against righthanded pitching than Seattle is the Athletics squad that comes to Yankee Stadium tonight, so I love the over on this number.

MLB (1 Unit) Houston Astros/Colorado Rockies Over 10.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:40 PM CT on COLR

You simply cannot put the league’s hottest offense in Coors Field and set the total here. This is a number that Houston is liable to clear on their own since they’ve scored double-digit runs three times already this season. The Astros are particularly crushing lefties, leading the league in every standard and advanced metric and it’s really not close.

So they should jump all over Kyle Freeland early, who does not have good numbers against this Houston roster, then add more when the weak bullpen takes over. But don’t discount this Colorado lineup that has been sneaky good this season and just put up 9 runs on Houston last night. The Rockies always hit well at home, and with the wind blowing out at Coors tonight I think books made a big mistake by not lining this total like a mid-summer Rockies home game.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-13 (+1.73 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.