Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/07

Locks

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Houston vs Florida -1 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:50 PM CT on CBS

This game is really tough to handicap. There’s so much strength-versus-strength in the matchups that I’m really down to nitpicking each team’s rare losses this season. Houston is so hot that their only loss since November was by a single point in overtime, but the losses before that were to teams that are important here.

The Cougars fell to both Auburn and Alabama in November, then ran out Tennessee in the Elite Eight to go to 1-2 against the SEC this season. And let’s not forget that they wouldn’t be here at all if Duke hadn’t authored one of the worst collapses you’ll ever see. Florida’s only losses were in conference play as well, but my way of looking at it is that the Gators were hardened by the SEC while Houston was defeated by it.

I would not be surprised to see Houston have an early lead, maybe at halftime or maybe even fairly late, so if you want to sit out the pre-flop betting here and look for a live number on Florida that’s probably smart. But the Gators do that Undertaker bit to perfection, they’re never dead and always have a run in them, so ultimately I think they cut down the nets here.

Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Walter Clayton Over 19.5 Points (-110)

0.25 Unit – Milos Uzan Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+115)

0.25 Unit – Emmanuel Sharp Over 2.5 Made Three's (+110)

MLB (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Orioles/Arizona Diamondbacks First 5 Innings Under 4 (-105; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on ARID

These are two of the best offenses in baseball, so generally I’ll be looking to play overs when both are in action. Not tonight though, at least not early, as two questionable pitching staffs both have their best arm going in this one. Zach Eflin is not your typical staff ace, but he’s pitched very well to start the season and has great numbers against this Arizona lineup, allowing just a .176 average and .423 OPS to them in his career.

And on the other side you get the home version of Zac Gallen, who for years has been elite in his own ballpark and just blanked the Yankees in the Bronx last week. The Baltimore bats have gone a little cold the past few games, so I’m expecting this to be a slower start where excellent pitching is the story.

MLB (1 Unit) San Diego Padres Team Total Over 4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:05 PM CT on SDPA

I think overs are going to be rolling in this Triple-A park the Athletics are playing at all summer, but for tonight I’m going to isolate the Padres to have a big night at the plate. That’s due to the pitching matchup here, as I think Michael King has a reasonable shot at holding the A’s down, but Luis Severino should get shelled by San Diego. He was hit hard in the first start he got in this park, as the Cubs rolled to 7 runs in their offensive binge in Sacramento. Severino is a fly-ball pitcher, not what you want in this small ballpark with the wind blowing out tonight, and an elite Padres offense should take advantage.

Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Gio Urshela Under 0.5 Total Bases (+130)

0.25 Unit – Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)

0.25 Unit – Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 12-16 (-4.5 Units) – Recommend: Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.