Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/06

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) NY Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks -1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Peacock

The Hawks have flipped from short underdogs to short favorites in this one, and with good reason. To me, it’s simply a matter of which team has been doing well against quality competition, and Atlanta has a massive edge in that comparison. The Knicks haven’t beaten a playoff team in a month, as their 9-5 record has featured 8 wins against lottery teams and one against the Curry-less Warriors.

Atlanta on the other hand has gone 13-2 in the same stretch, with the only losses on the road against playoff teams. Otherwise they’ve posted a plus-17 point average margin in their wins, including plus-12.8 versus playoff teams. I trust where this Hawks team is much more than the Knicks right now, and I think the hot streak continues for one of the league's better ATS teams.

NCAA Tournament (1 Unit) Michigan Team Total Over 76 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:50 PM CT on TBS

I said on Saturday that I’m not dumb enough to go against Dan Hurley in the tournament, and that turned out to be a good plan as he now has UConn 18-1 straight up and ATS the past 19 tournament games. I do think the straight up part ends here, but I’m not inclined to lay so many points against the covering machine, so this team total play is the best option for backing Michigan tonight.

The Wolverines are just a really tough matchup for any defense, as some of the best in the country have found out. UConn might be 8th in adjusted defensive efficiency, but St Louis was 42nd, Tennessee was 14th, and Arizona was 2nd but none of them could prevent Michigan from crossing 90 points. So just asking them to approach 80 is a big discount for a team that has gone over this number in 31 of 39 games this season.

UConn’s run through the tournament has been favorable for their slow style, as their opponents have all been willing to slow things down as well. Michigan will be a shock to UConn’s system, as they love to run on defensive rebounds, plus their size and physicality against a foul-prone Huskies squad means plenty of easy points at the free throw line. If you’re able to play alternate team totals I’d suggest sprinkling those up to the 90-point threshold Michigan has hit in every game, and I think this number is very favorable for them.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Yaxel Lendeborg Alt Over 2.5 Made Three’s (+200; Odds via DraftKings)

Lendeborg’s knee injury is definitely creating a discount on his expected offensive production, and I’m happy to buy low. Especially at a price like this for a prop that might actually benefit from him being a little hobbled tonight. I would expect him to stay on the perimeter more and be a spot-up shooter instead of flying around in the paint, especially with Michigan already having plenty of size to work with down low.

Despite the injury he still drained three triples against Arizona in limited action, and has hit at least three in every game except the opener against Howard. Yaxel tends to increase his volume from outside in big games, and I think the situation makes this a worthwhile play.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Trey McKenney Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+115; Odds via DraftKings)

Michigan as a team is just shooting too well from deep, and firing away with a ton of confidence right now. That means opportunity is going to be there for everyone, and I like the situation for McKenney to keep his hot tournament going. He’s shooting 52.4% from deep in the dance, and should be a sneaky beneficiary of the inside-outside game the Wolverines will be able to play against UConn tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves/LA Angels First 5 Innings Under 3.5 (+110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:38 PM CT on MLB.TV

There’s a non-zero chance that we’re looking at two Cy Young candidates facing off in this game. Chris Sale should always be in the conversation, and his start to this season of allowing a single run across his two starts reminds everyone why. I think he’ll have another good one in him here against an Angels lineup that is not hitting lefties well and won’t have Mike Trout to take pressure off some lesser hitters.

But if you’re sleeping on Jose Soriano, do so at your own risk. The LA righty has been throwing straight gas to start the year, regularly touching 100 mph and basically being unhittable. Soriano has cruised through two starts without giving up a run, and only allowing 4 total hits despite facing elite Astros and Cubs lineups. Atlanta has a dangerous lineup themselves, but it’s been inconsistent and should struggle again tonight against Soriano, keeping the start of this game extremely low-scoring.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-11 (+2.03 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.