Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/05

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves -15.5 @ Philadelphia 76ers (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

The closing stretch of the season will tell us a lot about this Wolves squad, as the competition is extremely soft. If the Wolves are finally taking bad teams seriously and putting in a full effort against them, they’ll roll through their last few opponents and it starts here. The Sixers are rolling over for everyone right now, and not only are they a bad team on the court, they’re also a bad team in the sportsbook, owning the league’s worst ATS record. Minnesota should flex their size here and dominate the league’s worst rebounding team, which I think gets them to a cover.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Florida -2.5 vs Auburn (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:09 PM CT on CBS

The biggest factor by far in this game has to be the health of Johnni Broome, and I’m pretty skeptical. It’s exceedingly tough to go from trying to play one-handed to ready for Florida’s frontcourt in less than a week, which is what Broome is trying to sell us. He didn’t do well in the first game against the Gators, who didn’t even have Micah Handlogten back in the lineup as they won convincingly on the road.

I’m convinced that Florida’s size and depth, all over the roster but especially down low, will be too much, especially if Auburn gets into foul trouble like they’re prone to. This will be a tough game that’s fought tooth and nail, but I’m just not seeing how the injuries we’ve all witnessed for Broome don’t make these teams further apart, so I’ll lay the short number.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Florida/Auburn First Half Under 76 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

Throughout the tournament, Auburn has been doing a good job of slowing the game down when that style will benefit them. It’s going to be a key hope of theirs today against the explosive Gators offense, and I think they’re able to slow the pace early on here. Add that to Final 4 jitters and adapting to the sightlines in a football stadium, and I’m seeing a lower-scoring start to this one.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Houston/Duke Over 136.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:49 PM CT on CBS

Thanks to having two of the best defenses in the country, with Houston holding the top spot for adjusted defensive efficiency, this total has to naturally be low. I think that creates an opportunity though considering how the strength of both defenses is down low. Both teams will have to become more perimeter-oriented because of that, which will mean points if they’re on. Houston and Duke both have issues allowing high amounts of production to the three, and both can really shoot it as the 2nd and 8th-best three-point percentage teams. Success on those three’s will make up for a slower tempo, and get this game to the relatively low total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-9 (+3.2 Units) – Recommend: Tail

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.