Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/04

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) San Antonio Spurs/Denver Nuggets Over 242.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:00 PM CT on Prime Video

This should be a nice appetizer for the Final 4 tonight, and I think it will be another high-octane game between these teams. Both prior meetings this season have gone absolutely nuts, with 275 and 267 points, neither of which even needed OT to reach that level of scoring. The offenses are just too good here, especially Denver who leads the league in just about every scoring metric.

So that’s a challenge for San Antonio’s excellent defense to slow down, and since they haven’t been able to yet I see Denver getting theirs at home. But the Nuggets really can’t stop much of anything right now, allowing even bad teams to score pretty easily against them as they’ve dropped to 21st in defensive rating. With Wemby on a mission the Spurs should score with ease here, and these teams that can shoot the lights out, get second chance points, and get to the free throw line have plenty of ways to clear this big total.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat -10.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on MNMT

The Heat have definitely been struggling, especially defensively, and it culminated in a bad April Fools joke when they allowed 147 points to Boston on Wednesday. But they’ve had a lot of time to think about that loss, and the perfect opponent comes to town for them to get back on track. Everyone’s favorite NBA punching bag, the Wizards, get run out like it’s their job, and the Heat have been excellent off a loss this season at 24-12 ATS.

So Miami should be able to replicate the success they’ve had against Washington this season in two blowout wins. This time of year though I’m not inclined to lay about 18 points with a team having defensive issues, so I’ll narrow this to the first half. The Wizards are unsurprisingly dead last in average first half margin this season, and were behind Miami by 22 and 14 points going into halftime of the previous meetings, so I think a bouncing back Heat team takes them out from the jump today.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Miami Heat First Half Team Total Over 69.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Washington’s horrible first half margin stems from giving up the most first half points in the league. They’ll have to be worse than usual here, as even on the road they’re only giving up 64.4 on average. But again, the motivation Miami should have coming into this game, their ability to bounce back, and the fact that they’ve dropped 74 and 76 in the first halves of the previous meetings has me expecting more of the same here.

College Basketball Crown (0.5 Unit) Creighton -1 vs West Virginia (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on FOX

It’s really all about the vibes for this game, as Creighton tries to go out and win the Crown for Greg McDermott before he retires. They looked great in Step One on Thursday as they demolished Rutgers, and Step Two here should be a favorable situation for them as well. West Virginia is a solid team and well-coached, but as good as their defense is it struggles to contain three-point shooting.

The Mountaineers are just 215th in three-point percentage defense, and here comes a Creighton team that’s top-25 in three-point rate and the production they generate from deep. It should be bombs away from deep for the Jays here in this potential send-off game for their coach, and I think that results in them getting one more game with him as they advance to the finals.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) UConn Team Total Under 69 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:09 PM CT on CBS

On Selection Sunday I had a TV spot where I gave out Illinois as a longshot option to win it all. I’m really hoping that ticket comes home, or I at least have an opportunity to monetize it on Monday night. But I’m not crazy enough to double down on that ticket and go against Dan Hurley’s tournament record of 17-1 straight up and ATS his past 18 games, so I need another angle in this game.

That has me looking to fade a UConn offense that I’ve been suspicious of for a long time, and the Huskies have a very difficult task here. Illinois came into the dance struggling defensively, but a renewed focus on the defensive end of the court has allowed them to hold three straight opponents under 60 points.

UConn really doesn’t have the outside shooting to be able to avoid testing the Illinois size inside, so I think that really stunts their offensive production. And the Illini being able to generate so many extra chances with their offensive rebounding helps keep the ball out of UConn’s hands. Illinois also doesn’t foul, so no easy points are coming at the stripe, and I think that all adds up to the Huskies struggling to score tonight.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Arizona/Michigan Over 157.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:49 PM CT on CBS

If you can’t sit back and enjoy this game from a pure basketball standpoint, then go turn on a baseball game or something because you hate fun. This matches up the 3rd and 4th-highest rated teams of all time in the KenPom database, setting up an absolute spectacle, and telling me we’ll be seeing truly peak level hoops. Because of how elite both teams are, I have to expect that to mean offense is going to overcome defense in this game.

I get that both teams are elite on the defensive end of the floor, actually rated 1st and 2nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. But great offense typically overrides great defense, especially when the game should be up-tempo, meaning layups and neutralizing the weird sightlines in this football stadium. With such a tightly contested game, a late scramble and fouls are in play to pad scoring, so while I can’t take a stand on either side of who’s going to win, I do think we see points in this de facto national championship game.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Houston Astros/Athletics Over 10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:05 PM CT on NBCS-CA

I said that last night’s game between these teams was a good opportunity to jump on what should be a relatively low total in an Athletics home game. After the A’s cleared the total on their own and 15 total runs went on the board, you’d think books would make a slight adjustment but no, this is the same total as yesterday.

I actually think there are even better conditions today, with the wind blowing slightly out of this Triple-A park and warmer temperatures for a day game. And the pitching matchup is far more favorable for runs today, with two weak starters going in Luis Morales and Tatsuya Imai. Both had rough opening starts to their seasons, and have to face strong offenses here. In a small ballpark with good environmental conditions for runs, I think we get well into double digits on the scoreboard again today.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-10 (+2.25 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.